Fantasy Start/Sit Broncos vs Chiefs: Start Russell Wilson, Bench Javonte Williams, More
Photo by David Eulitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Javonte Williams.
It’s difficult to call Broncos vs. Chiefs a rivalry when one team has dominated for more than a half decade.
The Chiefs have defeated the Broncos on 15 straight occasions and the streak doesn’t look to be in jeopardy as Denver is installed as a double-digit underdog for Thursday Night Football. The Broncos have the worst defense in football, allowing 7.0 yards per play, ranking 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 31st in rush defense DVOA.
The margin between the Broncos defense (32nd in DVOA) and the Bears defense (31st) is equal to the gap between Titans defense (20th) and the Bears. According to Sharp Football, no team has surrendered a higher completion percentage (77.3%), yards per attempt (9.2) or touchdown rate (8.4%) to opposing quarterbacks than Denver. Adding even more context to these metrics, the Broncos have only faced one of Pro Football Focus’ top-15 passers through the first five weeks.
We are looking at a historically bad defense.
Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce are two of the top fantasy options when they are on the field. Running back Isiah Pacheco is quickly becoming the third fantasy football mainstay in one of the league’s best offenses. Pacheco only played 30 or more snaps twice in the 2022 regular season. In 2023, he has been on the field for at least 31 snaps in every game.
Pacheco worked with Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Week 1 as backfield mates, but since then, Pacheo has been the workhorse, averaging 17.5 touches per game. He is averaging 4.8 yards per carry with 3.24 yards per attempt after contact, fourth best in the league among running backs with 50 or more carries. He is an RB1 for your fantasy team moving forward.
The youth of the Chiefs defense has begun their ascension. Kansas City is eighth in yards per play allowed and 11th in total defensive DVOA. This secondary has taken on some of the league’s best pass catchers — Amon-Ra St. Brown, Calvin Ridley, D.J. Moore, Garrett Wilson, Justin Jefferson — and held each of them to their lowest yards per target.
Feeling confident in starting any of the Broncos' weapons on offense is an uphill battle. Let’s go through each of the players you may be considering for your lineup.
Broncos Week 6 Start/Sit
Russell Wilson
Wilson has finished as a top-12 quarterback in four of the first five weeks of the season. The Broncos defense being so bad has forced Wilson to throw more — and to his credit, he is playing better, completing passes at 7.5% higher rate than he did in 2022.
There are two main factors that point to Wilson having a solid game on Thursday night. First, when you take away Justin Fields’ performance in a blowout that saw starters leave the game in the third quarter, all other quarterbacks have averaged 40.5 attempts against Kansas City. It is simply a nature of trying to keep up with the Chiefs offense, and in a lot of instances, teams are forced to throw due to game script.
Second, Wilson had only four games in 2022 in which he accounted for three total touchdowns, two of those were against the Chiefs. Wilson rushed for 84 yards against Steve Spagnuolo’s scheme a season ago, which could assist in providing a relatively safe floor.
Wilson is ninth in yards per attempt and is likely to put the ball in the air close to 40 times. While I rank him outside the top 10 quarterbacks this week, there is a case to be made for a spot start if you are missing Deshaun Watson, or simply choosing to play him over the likes of Jared Goff or the version of Kirk Cousins without Jefferson.
Broncos running backs
It’s nearly impossible to predict how the touch distribution will play out between Jaleel McLaughlin, Javonte Williams and Samaje Perine.
Williams was inactive against the Jets in Week 5, but he does not carry any injury designation heading into this game. He has not been efficient this season, as his yards per carry (3.6) have dipped well below his career average. With just 5.3% of Williams' runs being explosive this season, I have a hard time recommending him given both his role and health.
Perine seems to be the trusted third down and catch-up mode option for the Broncos, and he once again paced the backfield in targets and snaps last week. His lack of rushing success should keep him on your bench in almost all leagues unless you are truly desperate for a RB2 in full-PPR leagues.
McLaughlin is the player I would be most confident in starting regardless of who suits up for the Broncos. He is the most explosive weapon on their offense.
The Chiefs are 26th in yards allowed per attempt. McLaughlin trails only De’Von Achane in explosive run percentage and leads the NFL with 0.41 forced missed tackles per attempt. He has also seen his snaps increase in three straight games. Sean Payton has no choice but to continue to carve out a role for the breakout rookie.
In half-PPR leagues, feel free to put McLaughlin in one of your RB slots if you need him as a flex. In full PPR, McLaughlin is still a good option, but opting for a WR3 type is the preferred option if your roster allows it.
Courtland Sutton
Sutton leads Denver in targets with 31, but you are mostly just chasing a touchdown if you choose to play him.
Sutton has 229 receiving yards, but only nine of those are after he absorbs contact. His lack of run after the catch ability limits his upside — we are really only hoping for a deep ball or end-zone target, of which Sutton has three.
While it’s possible for him to hit paydirt, his 78% snap rate on the outside of the formation does not bode well for projecting production, as that is where the Chiefs have been their strongest in defending the wide receiver position.
Sutton is a WR3 only this week, but I am looking for any and all opportunities to keep him on the bench.
Jerry Jeudy
Jeudy played a season-high 54 snaps in Week 5 and paced the team with six receptions. According to FantasyPoints data, Jeudy has been Wilson's first read on 28.6% of passing plays. For context, Sutton has a 21.3% first-read target share. Jeudy is also much more likely to be featured on the inside of the formation, giving him a better chance of attacking the weaker areas of the Chiefs pass defense.
Marvin Mims still leads the Broncos in receiving yards, but he cannot be trusted as he has only seen the field for 20 snaps once this season. Jeudy’s health has been inching closer to 100% and it would not surprise me if he starts to live up to his fifth-round fantasy draft status.
With his hamstring nearly fully healed, feel confident in starting Jeudy as a strong WR3 play.
Chiefs Week 6 Start/Sit
Rashee Rice
Rice is the only Chiefs receiver to consider starting. In fact, he is the only skill player on the Chiefs who needs to be addressed.
It’s all about playing time for Rice, as he is clearly being featured when he steps on the field. Rice has accounted for 48% of the Chiefs' receiving yardage when he is in the formation. The issue is he is only running a route on 31.3% of Mahomes’ dropbacks. According to FantasyPoints data, Rice has an expected fantasy points per route run metric of 0.61, which makes him fifth and just above the likes of Keenan Allen and Mike Evans.
Rice also leads K.C. in red-zone targets. Again, when he is on the field, he is a major threat. With Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore outside of the top 75 WRs in yards per route run, it is only a matter of time before Rice carves out an even bigger role in the passing game.
On a short week and coming off a game in which he played his least amount of snaps since Week 2, it is hard to get behind Rice as a WR3 or flex dart throw.
I'd much rather take a chance on him after the Chiefs' mini-bye following Thursday Night Football. For now, keep him on your bench, but be aware his true breakout is looming large.
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