The USC and Notre Dame rivalry is unique, as it's one of the few cross-country rivalries in college football. The historic brands have been playing since 1926, and Notre Dame holds a 50-37-5 record. After a period of dominance by the Trojans, the Fighting Irish have regained control in the series, winning six of the last seven meetings.
While the future of the series is up in the air, this year's matchup is very significant to the College Football Playoff. USC cruised to a 31-13 win over Michigan last week and now has the opportunity to pick up an impressive road victory in South Bend.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame has won four straight after an 0-2 start. If it gets by the Trojans, it has a favorable path to getting to 10-2 and a likely CFP berth. Read on for my Notre Dame vs USC picks and college football parlay for Saturday, October 18.
Notre Dame vs USC Picks, Parlay
- Makai Lemon 70+ Receiving Yards (-325)
- Jeremiyah Love 80+ Rushing Yards (-190) & Anytime TD (-300)
- USC +14.5 (-180)
Parlay Odds: +285 via Fanatics
Notre Dame vs USC Odds
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | -330 |
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 61 -110o / -110u | +265 |
USC Player Prop: Makai Lemon 70+ Receiving Yards (-325)
A top-50 recruit in the 2023 class, Lemon broke out as a sophomore with 52 receptions for 764 yards and three touchdowns.
Still, the USC junior started this season under the radar, but that's no longer the case as he's now a projected first-round pick.
He enters this week as the nation's second-leading receiver with 682 yards on 44 receptions to go along with six touchdowns. Lemon has recorded at least four receptions in every game, which has translated into five games of over 90 receiving yards and three with 100 yards or more.
Notre Dame is 67th in Passing Success Rate Allowed and 106th in passing yards allowed per game, surrendering 245.3 per contest.
The Irish do have one of the nation's top corners in sophomore Leonard Moore, who may travel to the slot to cover Lemon this week.
Still, Lemon had nine catches for 133 yards against Notre Dame last season, when the Irish defense was playing at a much higher level.
Behind Lemon as the third-leading receiver in the country is Texas A&M's Mario Craver. Against Notre Dame, he had seven catches for 207 yards and a touchdown. Notre Dame also allowed 82 yards to Miami's Malachi Toney and Arkansas' O'Mega Blake.
Lemon has already soared over this number against the Irish, but 70 yards is a reasonable expectation for a night game in South Bend.
Notre Dame Player Prop: Jeremiyah Love 80+ Rushing Yards (-190) & Anytime TD (-300)
While Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman has made his bones on the defensive side of the ball, he'll want to keep Lemon, Jayden Maiava and the high-powered USC offense on the sideline.
One way to do that is to rely on his dynamic running back tandem of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. Love leads the group with 530 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns, which is tied fourth in the FBS.
After a quiet season opener, Love has scored in each of his last five games and has run for 80 yards in four of them. Love has six 100-yard games over the last two seasons. He nearly missed a seventh with 99 rushing yards and a touchdown against the Trojans last year.
USC is 29th in rushing yards allowed, but its physicality will be tested by Notre Dame, considering it's 108th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed.
Illinois' tandem of Kaden Feagin and Ca'Lil Valentine combined for 119 rushing yards on 22 carries. Michigan's Justice Haynes was well on his way to a sixth straight 100-yard game before a first-half injury ended his night with 51 yards.
Jordan Marshall finished with 68 yards on 14 carries in his absence.
Love has had at least 14 carries in each of his last five games, which should help him gain 80 yards in this game. He's also caught 14 passes and has three touchdown catches this year. Don't be surprised if he catches one from CJ Carr.
Spread Pick: USC +14.5 (-180)
While Notre Dame has controlled this series of late, USC has either won or stayed within 14 points in four of the last six meetings.
Its struggles coming back East have been well documented. However, its lone loss this season was a two-point defeat at Illinois on a field goal as time expired, and it also won at Purdue.
I believe this is an improved USC team, particularly in the trenches, and I lean towards it covering the actual spread of 9.5 points.
However, with points expected, this may be a good live trading game, and if Notre Dame scores first, USC may go to +14.5 live.
Given this parlay's value, I would rather take the +14.5 pre-game. If USC stays within 10 points, as I expect, this leg should cash comfortably to complete the parlay.
