Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Odds & Betting Predictions - October 9, 2026

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TNF Play: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/buccaneers-vs-cowboys-first-touchdown-scorer-props

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From my TNF game guide: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers-vs-dallas-cowboys-prediction-pick-odds-nfl-thursday-night-football-october-8

Hurst is a third-round rookie I was pretty high on coming in, gives me some Michael Wilson vibes, and he’s cleared this number in all four games. But I’m lower on him here for a few reasons. The biggest one is Jalon Daniels. He’s going to scramble at a much higher rate than Baker and obviously isn’t the same caliber passer, so I expect Tampa’s overall passing volume and efficiency to come down. Even against a very gettable Dallas defense, I still think the Bucs lean pretty run heavy as long as they can keep the game close. When Daniels did throw last week, his average target was just 4.2 yards downfield, lowest in Week 4, and he didn’t attempt a single pass 20+ yards downfield. Hurst’s 21-yard catch was basically the closest thing to a deep shot, and if he doesn’t make a great sideline grab there, he finishes with 1 catch for 4 yards. Just another reminder how thin the margins can be on these props. There’s also the playing-time piece. Tez Johnson passed Hurst on the depth chart last week, which knocked Hurst down to a season-low 39% routes run rate. I’m projecting that to bounce back closer to 45-50%, but on a short week with a rookie QB making his second start, it wouldn’t shock me if Tampa keeps a similar personnel plan and Hurst stays under 40% again. The other tug of war is target depth. Hurst has a 20.9 aDOT on the season, so if Daniels continues throwing closer to the line of scrimmage, that could mean fewer targets for Hurst specifically. He could get a couple easier short-area looks instead, which would raise his catch rate but lower his yards per reception. That gives him a really wide range of outcomes. One 20+ yard shot that connects and this is dead instantly. Wouldn’t be the first or last time that happens to me. But that’s also why I sim these props 10,000 times instead of pretending there’s one exact outcome. I have Hurst’s median closer to 15.5 yards with around a 58% chance to stay under 20.5. There are absolutely simulations where he goes for 70+ and this looks awful afterward, but more often than not I think this one quietly stays under.

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Dallas being an 8.5-point home favorite obviously points toward a more run-heavy, leading game script, but as I discussed in my betting preview, Tampa Bay is a pretty tough matchup to actually run on. The Bucs rank 5th in rush DVOA, and if Dallas gets into obvious running situations I’d expect Javonte’s efficiency to come down a bit. He’s averaging just 3.7 YPC this year despite scoring 5 TDs, with a lot of his work coming in short-yardage/goal-line situations that naturally drags down the average. That’s part of why I’d rather fade the yardage than the attempts. Javonte has also run a league-high 71% of his attempts inside, which is basically running right into the teeth of this defense and Vita Vea. Tampa has allowed a league-low 1.59 yards after contact per carry on inside runs. There’s also a sneaky workload concern. Javonte hasn’t had much competition from the backup RB spot the last couple years, but Tyler Goodson has started eating into his early-down role at one of the highest rates we’ve seen from one of his backups. Javonte is still dominating the short-yardage, goal-line and passing-down work, which is great for fantasy, but it lowers his floor in this market specifically. I have him closer to 64.5 rushing yards with around a 58% chance to stay under 69.5. And with how the matchup and usage line up, I wouldn’t be shocked if he finishes well below that. Of course, Dallas could just win by 10+ and give him 20+ carries and this gets chalked. No prop is ever 100%, and I’m definitely not pretending otherwise 😅

Novig

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*Winless Road Teams* Overall: 132-79-2,63% (ROI:21%) Season:5-2-0,71% (ROI:36%) #TSA

Daniels struggled at QB in his debut, the Cowboys are weaker against the run than the pass and Hurst didn't get a single catch in 2H against the Packers, running routes on just 36% of dropbacks.

There is a value opportunity on Javonte Williams's rush attempts prop. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 16.26 rush attempts, while sportsbooks imply 19.39. The model believes there is a 67% chance he records fewer than 17.5 rush attempts, so there is some value on the under at -106. This play is good down to at least -140. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz