Ultimate NFL Week 4 Betting Guide: Picks & Predictions For Every Game

Ultimate NFL Week 4 Betting Guide: Picks & Predictions For Every Game article feature image
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen, Alvin Kamara, Baker Mayfield

  • See our staff's previews, betting picks and predictions for every NFL Week 4 game slated for Sunday.

The 3-0 Bills are +7 against the Patriots … at home. The Saints as +2.5 at home against the Cowboys. And the Browns moved from +3.5 to +7 against the Ravens.

Are any of those underdogs worth backing? What are the best betting angles for Sunday?


Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


Our staff helps sort through every 1 and 4 p.m. ET game to help you find the best edges. Here are the games they’ll hit on:

  • Browns at Ravens: 1 p.m. ET
  • Panthers at Texans: 1 p.m. ET
  • Chiefs at Lions: 1 p.m. ET
  • Patriots at Bills: 1 p.m. ET
  • Raiders at Colts: 1 p.m. ET
  • Chargers at Dolphins: 1 p.m. ET
  • Titans at Falcons: 1 p.m. ET
  • Redskins at Giants: 1 p.m. ET
  • Buccaneers at Rams: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Seahawks at Cardinals: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Vikings at Bears: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Jaguars at Broncos: 4:25 p.m. ET

See how they’re betting all 12 games, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds, analysis of the biggest matchups and much more. (Including picks for every game.)


Go To: CLE-BAL | CAR-HOU | KC-DET | NE-BUF | OAK-IND | LAC-MIA | TEN-ATL | WAS-NYG | TB-LAR | SEA-ARI | MIN-CHI | JAC-DEN


Browns at Ravens Betting Odds

  • Odds: Ravens -6.5
  • Total: 45
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Hopes were high in Cleveland to start the year, but the Browns find themselves 1-2 and a near touchdown underdog in Week 4 to the Ravens. Baltimore, meanwhile, has only a Kansas City loss on its resume and will look to keep momentum going.

Read below for Sean Koerner’s projected odds, injuries to watch, notable mismatches and our staff’s favorite betting picks.

Browns-Ravens Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Ravens

Ravens CB Jimmy Smith (knee) is likely out again after failing to practice this week so far. TE Mark Andrews continues to battle a foot injury and missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday — the first time this season he’s missed consecutive practices.

The Browns are in brutal shape with five players missing practices on Thursday, including three injuries to the secondary in CBs Denzel Ward (hamstring), Greedy Williams (hamstring) and safety Morgan Burnett (quad). Williams owns one of the best Pro Football Focus coverage grades on the team, which could make it a very long day for the Browns defense. Justin Bailey

Note: All injury info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Ravens Rushing Defense vs. Browns Rushing Attack

One of the most disappointing parts of Cleveland’s season has been its lack of rushing success. The Browns rank just 25th in Football Outsiders’ run offense DVOA despite returning running back Nick Chubb, who totaled 996 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on just 192 carries in 2018.

The Ravens have won the last three home games against the Browns with an average margin of victory of 12.3 points. In those games, Cleveland has 48 rushes for a total of 176 yards (3.67 yards per carry) with no rushing touchdowns.

The Browns have struggled mightily to find success on short third- and fourth-down runs, ranking 28th in Power Success.

Nick-Chubb-Fantasy-Football
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Chubb

The Browns need to keep the Ravens’ pressure defense off balance, as their offensive line has been even worse in pass blocking. They rank just 25th in pass protection, and Baker Mayfield is currently 29th among all quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback. Cleveland must find success on the ground to enable Mayfield to jumpstart the disappointing offense.

Teams struggle to run in Baltimore, which translates to a lack of sustained drives. With Lamar Jackson guiding an explosive Ravens offense, Cleveland will need to dominate time of possession. Baltimore linebacker Pernell McPhee and safeties Tony Jefferson and Earl Thomas have been strong against the run all season.

If the Browns want to avoid a 1-3 start, they need to find a way to run the ball successfully in a tough AFC North venue. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Ravens -6
  • Projected Total: 45.5

Last week I said it was time to buy low on the Browns. Unfortunately, as game-time approached, the Browns realized they were going to be without multiple defensive backs. It’s always a concern when you get a cluster of injuries like that.

To make matters worse, their play-calling was again a major issue in their 20-13 loss to the Rams. We could see Freddie Kitchens surrender those responsibilities to offensive coordinator Todd Monken in the near future.

I expected the Browns to struggle early on, so I’m not overreacting too much to their poor start. Getting +7 in this spot will offer some value if Morgan Burnett, Damarious Randall and Denzel Ward are all able to suit up this week. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Why I’m Using Ravens in Teasers

There’s three things you can take to the grave: Death, taxes and the Ravens beating the Browns.

The Ravens have dominated this divisional matchup. The last time the Browns won in regulation in Baltimore was 2002. (Their two wins there over that span have both come in overtime.) John Harbaugh also boasts a 10-1 record at home against the Browns.

What does that mean for this game? Not much on the surface, but the Ravens are using it to play the disrespect card after hearing all of the Browns hype in the offseason.

This is a statement game for Baltimore.

Both teams are dealing with key injuries.

With Smith likely out again and corner Tavon Young on IR, the Ravens’ secondary is left very thin. Anthony Averett has had to fill in on the outside, which has not gone well for the 2018 fourth-round draft pick. He’s blown assignments and been out of place, and it’s a major reason for Baltimore’s 27th ranked pass defense. (There are other communication issues in the defensive backfield that the Ravens need to straighten out, in fairness.)

However, it looks like the Browns won’t have the services of wide receiver Rashard Higgins once again — and I think the Browns offense really misses him (as well as Njoku, who could have given Baltimore fits). Damion Ratley is a guy Averett can actually stick with, while the Ravens are solid in the slot with Brandon Carr and on the outside at their No. 1 corner spot with Brandon Humphrey.

Meanwhile, the Browns secondary is in much worse shape and could be without three of their four starters this week. Even if Andrews can’t go for Baltimore — which would certainly be noteworthy despite the depth at the position — both quarterbacks should have opportunities downfield.

But this game boils down to is the trenches, where the Ravens have a significant edge.

Both defenses generate a ton of pressure and as quick as anybody in the league.

The Browns’ strength on defense is their line, led by Myles Garrett, one of the best defensive ends in the NFL.

However, the Ravens have one of the best pass-blocking left tackles to match up with Garrett in Ronnie Stanley. In fact, per PFF, only Dallas’ Tyron Smith has a higher pass-blocking grade among all offensive tackles this season. Orlando Brown has also been solid in that department on the right side; he’ll have to deal with Olivier Vernon.

The Browns’ offensive line hasn’t been awful from a pass blocking perspective — Baker Mayfield has abandoned the pocket too soon in certain instances — but it hasn’t been as good as the Ravens’ and it’s performed significantly worse from a run-blocking perspective. Plus, Cleveland could be without starting RT Chris Hubbard (game-time decision) once again. And the drop-off in pass blocking from him to Justin McCray is significant.

Throw in the crowd noise and Mayfield might be abandoning the pocket at a much higher rate than Lamar.

Also, while the Browns’ special teams have been surprisingly strong so far, you have to give the nod to the Ravens in this department.

On Sunday, the Ravens will have the better run game, a more reliable OL, superior coaching and a special teams edge. And they’ll play at home in front of one of the better home-field environments in the league.

I do expect a fight from the Browns, who should be fine once they get healthy (assuming the play-calling improves). And Mayfield should be better, but I still feel confident in a Ravens win.

And while I’m not crossing 7 and 3, I did the next best thing by teasing off a 7 or 3. I ended up teasing the Ravens down from 7 to -1 and paired them with the Vikings.


Panthers at Texans Betting Odds

  • Odds: Texans -4
  • Total: 47.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Cam Newton (foot) is out for a second consecutive game, but backup quarterback Kyle Allen thrived in relief with four touchdowns in the Panthers’ 38-20 win over the Cardinals last week. Can Allen repeat that success on the road against Houston?

Our experts cover the most important angles of this game, including Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Panthers-Texans Injury Report

The Panthers could be without DT Kawann Short, who ranks second on the team in pressure rate, with a shoulder injury for a second consecutive game. CB Donte Jackson (groin) also missed practice on Thursday, which could be good news for the Texans’ high-powered receivers if Carolina is short-handed in the secondary.

Everyone on the Texans except OL Seantrel Henderson (illness) is trending towards playing. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Christian McCaffrey vs. Texans Defense

The Texans defense has been shockingly poor against the run after ranking first overall in Football Outsiders’ run defense DVOA in 2018. They’ve dropped to the 14th most efficient rush defense and were gashed by Alvin Kamara (7.5 yards per carry) and Latavius Murray (7.2 YPC) in Week 1.

Now the Texans face McCaffrey, who ranks second among all running backs with 318 rushing yards.

panthers-texans-betting-odds-pick-preview-nfl-week 4-2019
Mark J. Rebilas-USA Today Sports. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey.

McCaffrey should also thrive in the passing game. He has taken 59 of 62 of the running back carries and 21 of the 22 Carolina running back targets, a combined 95% of the team’s running back touches. That should bode well against a Houston defense that has allowed the second-most receptions (24) and sixth-most receiving yards to opposing running backs this season.

Allen was superb (261 passing yards, four touchdowns, no interceptions) in Carolina’s 38-20 win at Arizona last week. Look for him to produce another efficient performance with McCaffrey at the center of the offense yet again.

The Texans were able to limit the Chargers backfield duo of Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson to 14 carries for 62 rushing yards. However, they did allow Ekeler to have seven reception on seven targets for 45 receiving yards.

With Newton still sidelined, the key to a Houston win centers around stopping McCaffrey, both in the rushing and passing game. — Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Texans -4
  • Projected Total: 47.5

Last week I docked the Panthers only 2-2.5 points for the switch from Newton to Allen while the market moved the line from Panthers -2.5 to Cardinals -2.5 — a full five-point swing.

After watching some film on Allen I realized that he was definitely being undervalued, so Panthers +2.5 became one of my top bets of Week 3. But now that the public saw Allen light up the Cardinals for a 38-20 victory, it looks like the public might have over adjusted the other way.

We need to be very cautious about evaluating a team’s offense immediately after facing a porous Cardinals defense. I have the Texans as 5.5-point favorites here, which means there’s some value on them at -4 — and this is coming from someone who was admittedly bullish on the Allen-led Panthers a week ago.

The Panthers are fairly stout against the pass, but more vulnerable against the run. Still, the Texans aren’t equipped to take advantage of that with a backfield featuring Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson. It’s a bit telling that they brought in C.J. Anderson to try out this week — they’re aware their glaring weakness is going to prevent them from attacking the Panthers on the ground.

This sets up as an ideal under. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Matthew Freedman: Texans -4

This pick comes down to the Texans passing offense vs. the Panthers passing defense.

The Texans have probably the league’s best quartet of wide receivers in DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills and Keke Coutee. The Panthers, meanwhile, are No. 27 in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA.

panthers-texans-betting-odds-pick-preview-nfl-week 4-2019
Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Deshaun Watson.

As I mention in my Week WR/CB matchup piece, I expect cornerback James Bradberry to tail Hopkins. In his three-plus seasons as a shadow man, Bradberry has been very inconsistent. He either completely shuts down his receiver 100%, or he gets dominated by his opponent. Given Hopkins’ incredible technical skills as a route runner and his physical dominance on contested catches, I’m expecting ‘Nuk’ to blow up Bradberry’s spot.

Cornerback Donte Jackson has the speed (4.32-second 40-yard dash) to keep pace with Fuller, but Jackson is still somewhat raw as he enters his second season. For his career, he’s allowed a 68.8% catch rate, and when he’s bad, he’s very bad: Last year, he had four games with at least five receptions and 100 yards allowed. He can be exploited, and Fuller is likely to beat him for a big play at some point. The fourth-year wideout ranks No. 13 in the league with 310 air yards.

In the slot, Stills and Coutee should be able to get open against cornerback Ross Cockrell, who allowed six reception on eight targets last week.

I like the Texans to put up points at home.

While Allen has looked good for the Panthers in his two career starts, I’m not ready to think of him as a starter-level quarterback based on two starts against hobbled defenses.

The Texans at home against a vulnerable secondary and a backup quarterback? Yeah, I’ll lay the points. I’d bet this to -5.5 if necessary.


Chiefs at Lions Betting Odds

  • Odds: Chiefs -6.5
  • Total: 55
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

At a combined 5-0-1 straight-up and 5-1 against the spread, the Chiefs and Lions will look to continue solid starts to the year. Kansas City is nearly a touchdown favorite on the road, but where’s the value in this line?

Read below to see Sean Koerner’s projected odds, mismatches to note and how our experts are betting this game.

Chiefs-Lions Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Lions

The Lions are in good shape with the exception of Danny Amendola (chest), who hasn’t been able to practice on Wednesday or Thursday.

The Chiefs are in the spot as they were in Week 3 with Damien Williams (knee) expected to be out again. LeSean McCoy banged up his ankle last week, but he practiced in full on Thursday, so he should be good to go. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Chiefs Pass Offense vs. Lions Pass Defense

This matchup has less to do with the Lions and more to do with the Chiefs — and that would probably be the case almost regardless of whoever the Chiefs were playing.

Patrick Mahomes doesn’t always throw the ball deep, although it often seems as if he does. He’s just No. 13 with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 9.3 yards.

But when the Chiefs go deep, they have success: They attack downfield opportunistically. Mahomes has a league-high five passing touchdowns of 40-plus yards. He has an elite 147.9 QB rating on throws of 20-plus yards and leads the league with 13 deep completions, 526 deep passing yards and seven deep touchdowns (per Pro Football Focus).

To put those numbers in context: Just 15.9% of Mahomes’ completions have come on deep attempts, but 44.0% of his passing yards and 70% of his passing touchdowns are via the downfield game.

Basically, Mahomes is like a boxer. For much of the fight, he’s throwing low-impact body blows and setting his opponent up. And then, whenever he sees his opening, he goes for the head with the knockout punch.

As far as opponents go, the Lions aren’t soft, but they are punchable.

fantasy-football-ppr-rankings-wr-week 4-2019
Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Sammy Watkins

With wide receiver Tyreek Hill (clavicle) sidelined since Week 1, Sammy Watkins has run 66.7% of his routes from the slot. No. 1 cornerback Darius Slay is one of the few shadow men who follows receivers into the slot, and he has held opposing receivers to a low 52.4% catch rate since last year.

But Slay is questionable with a hamstring injury. If he plays, the Lions might not use him in shadow coverage, in which case Watkins would get to face cornerback Justin Coleman in the slot. Watkins is significantly bigger and faster than Coleman: He should win that matchup.

And if Slay does cover Watkins, I’d expect the receiver to beat the hamstrung corner.

On the outside, Demarcus Robinson and Mecole Hardman have emerged as big-time playmakers in Hill’s absence. Over the past two weeks, Robinson has a 9-215-3 receiving line on 10 targets; Hardman, 6-158-2 on 11.

With Slay’s injury, he could struggle to keep up with Robinson and Hardman, and Coleman and outside corner Rashaan Melvin both seem outclassed given Robinson’s size and Hardman’s speed.

And this is to say nothing of tight end Travis Kelce, who will match up primarily with safety Quandre Diggs, who has a 52.0 PFF coverage grade. Kelce should be able to handle him.

The Lions defense has the league’s third-highest aDOT allowed at 10.3 yards: The Lions invite teams to attack them deep.

When a knockout puncher fights an opponent who invites headshots … [insert here GIF of Mike Tyson knocking out Michael Spinks]. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chiefs -5.5
  • Projected Total: 54

I’m not going to sugarcoat it: The Chiefs are a much better football team than the Lions. Kansas City should absolutely be the favorite here, but this is a textbook case of the market simply setting an imaginary number too high.

Mahomes is unstoppable, but the Lions defense is solid enough to slow him down, and their offense is more than capable of keeping up with the Chiefs at home.

The line has moved to -6.5, but the market is backing the Chiefs heavily with 86% of the tickets as of writing (see our live public betting data), so the line could end up going up to 7.5 by kickoff. If that happens and Slay and defensive tackle Mike Daniels are able to suit up, the Lions will be one of my favorite bets of the week. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Freedman: Chiefs -6.5

I’m not saying that you should blindly bet the Chiefs — but they are 3-0 against the spread this year, covering by an average of 7.3 points per game. And I still think the market is undervaluing them.

Since head coach Andy Reid joined the franchise in 2013, no team has had larger offensive reverse home/away splits than the Chiefs. Most teams score more points at home than on the road. But not the Chiefs. Under Reid, they have averaged 2.69 more points on the road than at Arrowhead Stadium.

In other words, the home-field advantage that most teams have when they play pretty much any other team — that’s drastically diminished when they host the Chiefs.

chiefs-raiders-betting-odds-picks-cheat sheet-nfl-week 2-2019
Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Andy Reid

As a result, we might expect the Chiefs to be a great team against the spread on the road — and that’s exactly what we see in the historical data. Reid’s Chiefs are 33-16-1 ATS away from home, good for a 32.3% ROI (per Bet Labs). Since joining the Chiefs, Reid has been the most profitable coach to back on the road.

And from a football perspective, I like this line regardless of Reid’s ATS history. As highlighted above, the Chiefs offense should be able to exploit the Lions deep via the passing game. They could easily score 30-plus points.

As for the Lions on offense, they have a mediocre 5.6 yards per play, and that’s despite the points-friendly matchups they had in Weeks 1 and 3 against the Cardinals and Eagles. They’re 2-0-1, but their record seems fraudulent.

Given the road advantage they have under Reid, their explosive passing game and the mediocre opposing offense, the Chiefs could win by double digits.

I wouldn’t bet this past -7, because I want a margin of safety, but I would definitely take this to -7 with even a little extra juice if necessary.


Patriots at Bills Betting Odds

  • Odds: Patriots -7
  • Total: 42.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

Who could have predicted this would be a battle for the top of the AFC East?

The Bills are off to a 3-0 start, but are 7-point home underdogs to the Patriots. Is Buffalo being undervalued?

Our experts break down the most important angles of this game, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and staff picks.

Patriots-Bills Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Both relatively healthy

Both team’s injury reports are filled with players who were limited in practice, suggesting they’re trending toward playing. Even Julian Edelman (chest) hasn’t missed a practice this week, and Tom Brady (calf) was removed from the Patriots’ injury report after being limited on Wednesday.

The only player who missed practice for New England was OL Marshall Newhouse, who sat out due to an illness after being limited on Wednesday. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Patriots Pass Defense vs. Bills Pass Offense

New England’s defense isn’t as good as the numbers it’s put up. Obviously.

The Pats have yet to allow an offensive touchdown while holding opponents to a league-leading 3.8 yards per play. That’s simply unsustainable, as they’ve clearly benefited from an extremely easy schedule that’s included the Steelers, Dolphins and Jets — three teams with zero combined wins.

That said, the Patriots defense — which hasn’t allowed a touchdown since the AFC Championship Game and is the first in NFL history to not allow a rushing or receiving TD in the first three games — is undoubtedly elite.

And it all starts with their cornerbacks.

For my money, the Patriots have the best group of cover corners in the NFL, which enables them to do so many things in their man-heavy scheme. (Nobody runs more man-to-man than New England.)

Having three lockdown corners with a solid group of three experienced safeties who all come on the field at the same time for dime packages makes throwing on NE on a consistent basis almost impossible. There are really no holes in this secondary.

Josh Allen is having a nice year. So is John Brown. But the Bills have only played the Bengals, Jets and Giants. The Giants might have the worst secondary, and Buffalo didn’t eclipse 21 points against the Jets or Bengals, who don’t boast dominant defensive backfields. And despite the competition, the passing numbers are just mediocre.

This is a big step up in competition for a passing attack that averaged a meager 5.6 yards per pass last season (31st in the NFL). Don’t expect the Bills to get much of anything through the air on Sunday. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Patriots -6
  • Projected Total: 44.5

The Patriots probably shouldn’t be getting a full touchdown at home. They have an insane +89 point differential, which ties for third-best since 1940 over the first three games. But the Bills will be the Patriots’ first real test as the winner of this game will take over the top of the AFC East.

Bookmakers floated Patriots -7.5 to open — a strategic opening number that paves the way for instant feedback on where sharps stand with a key number like 7 fully exposed on the underdog. Despite 80% of tickets and 73% of money pouring in on the Pats as of writing (see live public betting data here), the line has moved to -7 at some books while others have opted to leave it at -7.5, requiring a bit more juice to back the Bills.

It’s pretty clear the sharp money has been hitting Bills +7.5 here.

This total also has some value. It opened at 44, which was right in line with my number. However, heavy action on the under has forced books to lower it to 42.5, which opens up some value on the over — especially considering the most valuable key number (43) is now exposed.

While the public perception of this matchup being a defensive struggle makes sense on paper, the expected game flow would lean toward the over here.

Allen has improved as a passer; part of that is simply the Bills giving him more weapons to use in the passing game. The Bills will be required to come out firing here in order to hang with Brady and the Patriots.

Tom-Brady
Credit: Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tom Brady

On the flip side, the Patriots haven’t been pushed at all this season — they’ve blown out all three of their opponents so far. If the Bills keep this close, it’ll only force the Patriots to keep their foot on the gas the entire game.

I love the idea of parlaying Bills +7.5 and the over 42.5 here. There’s a stronger correlation between those two bets than people realize. Sean Koerner

Expert Picks

Stuckey: Bills +7 or better; Under 42 or better

Brady is a ridiculous 30-3 against the Bills and has more wins in Buffalo since 2001 than any Bills QB. but this isn’t your older brother’s Buffalo punching bag squad — this is a Bills team with some confidence on offense and a top-five defense.

But as I said, Allen shouldn’t find too much success through the air. And since the Patriots can man up on the outside, they can dedicate the necessary resources to bring pressure and to stop a rushing attack that doesn’t really scare anyone. Allen will have to make a few plays with his legs to extend drives. Still, the Bills aren’t going to go nuts offensively.

The Patriots offense has been rolling, but I wouldn’t take too much from the three bottom feeders they played.

A Brady-led offense is always going to find a way to score points, but the injuries along the offensive line, at tight end and now in the backfield with Pro Bowl fullback James Develin (who was critical in their rushing attack) leave this unit wounded. And on the road against one of the league’s best defense could be a struggle.

The Bills can cover and they can pressure — two requirements to throw Brady off of his game. Like New England, Buffalo also has one of the NFL’s best safety groups. They can support the run, help in coverage and create takeaways on the back end without giving up the big play. Look no further than the fact that Buffalo hasn’t allowed a completion of 50 or more years in an NFL-high 30 straight games.

Yes, Buffalo’s schedule has also been a cake walk, but it’s allowed the fewest passing yards of any team since the start of last season. The Bills have potential Pro Bowlers at every level on a top defense.

The 2019 Patriots reminds me of the ones from the early 2000s — the defensive-led teams that won Super Bowls with Tedy Bruschi, Richard Seymour, Willie McGinest, Ty Law and others. I don’t think this offense is going to blow elite defenses away, but their own defense is good enough to secure another ring when it’s all said and done.

In a battle of two unbeatens, expect a rock fight in Orchard Park. The Pats probably find a way, but the Bills defense won’t make it easy. The last time these two played (at the end of 2018), these were the final stat lines of each respective QB:

  • Allen: 20/41; 217 yards; 1 TD; 2 INT
  • Brady: 13/24; 126 yards; 1 TD; 2 INT


It might not be that ugly, but it won’t be pretty.


Raiders at Colts Betting Odds

  • Odds: Colts -7
  • Total: 45
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Colts are touchdown favorites against the Raiders at home. But can Jacoby Brissett and Co. get it done with two of their biggest stars at risk of not playing?

Our experts break down the most important angles of this game, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Raiders-Colts Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Raiders

OL Gabe Jackson (knee) is the Raiders’ biggest concern, otherwise most of their players are trending in the right direction.

It’s a different story for the Colts as T.Y. Hilton (quad) and LB Darius Leonard (concussion) have yet to practice this week. It wouldn’t be surprising if both are ruled out, but Hilton doesn’t need to practice to play. If Hilton practices on Friday, he could have a shot at playing. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Josh Jacobs vs. Colts Rush Defense

In case you haven’t heard, Jacobs is the real deal. Even when he doesn’t have holes to run though, he’s been as good as any back in the league at gaining yards after contact.

And a week after touching the ball only 10 times, expect the Raiders to use him early and often against a Colts rush defense that has been one of the NFL’s worst as one of only five teams allowing more than 5.0 yards per rush.

This is also a Colts defense that could be without its best player in Leonard.

Jon Gruden has said he wants to get Jacobs more involved in the passing game. Anytime you can get the ball into his hands, it’s a good thing. Expect a big day from the Alabama product against a beat up Colts defense that has struggled against the run. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Colts -8
  • Projected Total: 44.5

Last week I laid out the case that the Colts, despite being without Andrew Luck, are still built to win easy matchups at home. This is one of those cases.

There’s some value locking them in at -6.5 to avoid the key number of 7, which is still available at some books. I would also wait for Hilton to be ruled out, and to see if Leonard is able to suit up. It’s possible we could get the Colts -5.5 in that scenario, which is where the value will be. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Raiders +7

Leonard’s potential absence could really hurt the rush defense, but don’t sleep on the impact of losing safety Malik Hooker — the Colts’ best defensive back and integral ballhawk on the backend of their zone-heavy Cover 2 scheme.

Khari Willis taking over at free safety takes it from a strength to a potential glaring weakness. I expect either communication issues or even more simplistic schemes from the bend-but-don’t-break Indy D. Hooker was playing much more single high safety this season, which allowed the Colts to play more man than in years past. I don’t think they’ll have that same luxury here, so their defensive game plan and flexibility will certainly be limited.

Look for a big day out of tight end Darren Waller over the middle of the field. And while not known for doing so, hopefully Derek Carr will take some shots down the field after Oakland establishes its short passing and rushing attack.

As a result of a few schematics changes and personnel additions, the Raiders should be better against the run, which is paramount against Marlon Mack and Indy’s dominant offensive line. But Brissett and a banged up Colts receiving corps is not the group that will crush a very weak Oakland secondary.

Colts tight ends do scare me as Raiders linebackers — a unit dealing with a number of injuries — struggle to defend, but this is simply too many points.

Don’t be fooled by the records. Accounting for injuries, these teams are much closer than those indicate. Oakland has actually averaged more yards per play (5.9 vs. 5.7) while both defenses have allowed 6.7 yards per play.

Factoring in all of the injuries, I make this line only 4, so I gladly scooped Raiders +7 and would take them at anything 6 or better.


Chargers at Dolphins Betting Odds

  • Odds: Chargers -15.5
  • Total: 44
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Dolphins are 0-3 against the spread. They’ve failed to cover massive spreads against the Patriots (-19) and Cowboys (-22.5). And now they’re double-digit underdogs against the Chargers.

Is this the week to bet on them to cover?

Our analysts break down the most important angles of this game, complete with Sean Koerner’s projected odds.

Chargers-Dolphins Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Dolphins

Allen Hurns (concussion) is likely out, but the Chargers are extremely banged up with six guys missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday, including: Mike Williams (back), Travis Benjamin (hip), Virgil Green (groin) and Casey Hayward (back).

Justin Jackson (calf) was also added to the injury report on Thursday, but he did get in a limited session. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Chargers Run Offense vs. Dolphins Run Defense

The Chargers don’t have an especially great running game, but it’s certainly not bad. They’re fifth in the league with 5.2 running back yards per carry (per Football Outsiders), and Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson have done a great job filling in for Melvin Gordon during his holdout.

Austin Ekeler-Fantasy Football
Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Austin Ekeler

But the Dolphins are awful against the run, and because they forfeit so many points, teams run against them at will. They are No. 30 with 5.32 running back yards and No. 31 with 5.62 adjusted line yards allowed per run. They’re also No. 31 overall with an 18.4% run defense DVOA (per Football Outsiders).

And in terms of raw volume, no team has allowed more production to opposing backfields than the Dolphins have — 101-535-4 rushing and 10-105-1 receiving) — and that shouldn’t be a surprise: Gone from last year’s front seven are edge defenders Cameron Wake and Robert Quinn as well as tackle Akeem Spence and linebacker Kiko Alonso. Year over year, this defense has just been demolished.

The Dolphins have a league-worst 9% stuffed run rate, which means that teams are getting positive yards against them on 91% of their runs. They’re simply incapable of consistently getting stops when an opposing offense decides it’s going to run against them.

Against the Chargers running game, the Dolphins defense will be defenseless. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Chargers -15
  • Projected Total: 44.5

Here we go again.

The 2019 Dolphins could be one of the worst teams we have ever seen. They’re in full tank mode and seem destined to land the No. 1 overall pick in the loaded 2020 draft class. But while there’s a decent chance they go 0-16, it’s highly unlikely they go 0-16 against the spread.

The market might have to go to great lengths to help them achieve their first cover, which could very well be this week at home against the underachieving 1-2 Chargers. I am showing some slight value on the Dolphins here, but I can no longer in good conscience bet hard-earned money on a team clearly OK with losing.

I’ve adjusted their team power rating to a depth I’ve never seen before. To put things in perspective, the 2018 Cardinals — at their lowest point in my power ratings a season ago — would be 5.5-point home favorites and likely 1-point road favorites against the 2019 Dolphins. If you recall just how bad the Cardinals were last season, that should send chills down your spine. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Sonny Banks: Dolphins ML +750

The Dolphins are bad, probably historically bad. There’s no other way to put it. That said, there’s always a price to get involved with bad teams.

The Dolphins are severely disadvantaged in terms of talent, but I’ll always refuse to buy into the “not playing hard” or “players are tanking” narratives. All three of their games have been against contenders, and while each eventually snowballed, I did like the aggressiveness vs. Cowboys in the first half. Before the drops, the turnovers and general lack of talent became evident, we had a Miami team going toe-to-toe with Dallas. It’s impossible to predict how that game would’ve unfolded had the Dolphins converted on one of their many opportunities.

Against the Chargers, a team familiar with self-inflicted wounds with injury concerns and offensive line issues, the price is right this week.


Titans at Falcons Betting Odds

  • Odds: Falcons -4
  • Total: 45.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

After exploding for a 43-13 season-opening win over the Browns, the Titans have struggled offensively. Now they’re 4-point underdogs in Atlanta.

Can Marcus Mariota and Co. turn it around on the road? Or should you roll with the Falcons?

Our experts break down the most important angles of this game, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Titans-Falcons Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Titans

The Falcons lost a key player in S Keanu Neal (Achilles) last week and stud DT Grady Jarrett (toe) hasn’t practiced this week.

Delanie Walker (knee) didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday, which typically isn’t a good sign, but his Friday status will be the biggest indicator of his health for Week 4. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Titans Short Pass Offense vs. Falcons Pass Defense

The short passing attack, especially off playaction, against the Falcons’ Cover 3 could see this Titans offense look more like the one we saw in Week 1.

Marcus Mariota and his receivers have not been effective, but the offensive line deserves a large portion of the blame. After getting dominated by the Jags defensive front, the Titans’ O-line ranks dead last in adjusted sack rate.

However, the Atlanta front hasn’t been getting a ton of pressure and is dealing with injuries to two of its best players in Jarrett and Takkarist McKinley. Plus, the short passing attack can alleviate some of the issues Tennessee is dealing with up front.

Expect a huge day out of Walker over the middle of the field against a Falcons team that just lost Neal for the season. They will now go with Kemal Ishmael, who might be good in the run game but is a significant downgrade in the coverage department. And the one area where Mariota hasn’t struggled this year is when targeting his tight end.

Marcus Mariota-Delanie Walker
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Marcus Mariota, Delanie Walker

The former Oregon product has a 128.7 passer rating when throwing to Walker. Stuckey

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Falcons -4
  • Projected Total: 46.5

It’s true that the Titans are a bottom-five team in terms of my total ratings. They’re a run-heavy team that relies on their defense to keep them in games, and they try to limit Mariota to an extreme game-manager role. But they could be forced into a more pass-happy, faster-paced game plan on Atlanta in order to stay in the game.

That could result in an increase in snaps for Dion Lewis as the Titans abandon their “feed Derrick Henry” game plan, which will force their hand to play to the over based on the matchup. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Titans +4 or better

I like the Titans catching four points for four primary reasons.

Reason No. 1: As I mentioned, Mariota and Co. can have some success in the short passing game, especially with Walker. One week after the loss of Neal, I wouldn’t be surprised to see some blown coverages and communication issues in the secondary.

Reason No. 2: The Falcons have major questions along their offensive line, particularly at both guard spots and at right tackle with a rookie starter. The Titans defensive front can generate pressure and cause havoc with Jurrell Casey and Cameron Wake. They can get pressure on Matt Ryan, forcing him into bad throws, which we’ve seen a lot of this season (Ryan leads the NFL in picks). I actually expect the Titans to win the overall battle of the trenches.

Reason No. 3: Tennessee has the secondary talent to stick with all of Atlanta’s weapons on the outside.

Reason No. 4: Lastly, I actually think Dan Quinn is on the hot seat. His teams are constantly underprepared and sloppy. Look no further than that flag-filled contest vs. the Colts last week. Atlanta is currently tied with Cleveland for most penalties per game at a shockingly high 11.7. That lack of preparation and focus has consistently reared its ugly head against AFC opponents under Quinn. And for this week, the Titans have had extra prep/rest after a Thursday night game.

Quinn — who is 29-38 against the spread, making him the second-least profitable coach among all active coaches — is 0-12 ATS over his last 12 games vs. the AFC. He’s also just 3-8 on the moneyline as a favorite against the AFC.

I’m buying low on the Titans against a banged-up Falcons team that just doesn’t look right.


Redskins at Giants Betting Odds

  • Odds: Giants -3
  • Total: 49.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

Daniel Jones and the Giants have been the talk of the league since his heroics in Week 3. He’ll get his first start at home against the Redskins at MetLife on Sunday. As of Thursday, the market appears to believe in Jones as 57% of bettors are backing the G-Men. They’re also expecting a shootout with more than 70% of tickets backing the over.

Can we expect more magic from Jones and the Giants?

Our analysts break down the most angles of this divisional matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds, a Pro System match and our favorite picks.

Redskins-Giants Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Neither

The Giants will obviously be without Saquon Barkley (ankle) for an extended period of time, putting Wayne Gallman in an increased role. They also put Russell Shepard (foot) on injured reserve.

Additionally, they could be down three defensive players: Alec Ogletree (hamstring), Tae Davis (concussion) and Olsen Pierre (knee).

Case Keenum (foot) popped up in the injury report, but practiced in full on Thursday, so he should be good to go. Jordan Reed (concussion) still isn’t practicing and is expected to be out again. Two offensive linemen, Chase Roullier (knee) and Brandon Scherff (ankle) haven’t practiced this week and receiver Terry McLaurin (hamstring) was a new addition on Thursday, but he was still able to get in a limited session. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Both Passing Offenses vs. Both Pass Defenses

Washington enters Week 4 tied for the second-most touchdown passes in the league along with allowing opposing passers to convert air yards into actual yards at the fourth-highest rate in the league (1.07 actual yards per Air Yard per AirYards.com).

Danny Dimes went 23-of-36 for 336 yards and two touchdowns in his first start and has the fifth-highest Total QBR (86.8) among quarterbacks with at least 25 attempts.

Jones’ rushing prowess (4-26-2 last week) will put Washington defensive coordinator Greg Manusky in a conundrum, as man coverage would allow Jones to run wild, while Jones has the requisite arm accuracy to carve up a defense that ranks 26th in Pro Football Focus’ team coverage grades (49.9).

Jones probably has a brighter long-term matchup than Keenum, but Keenum’s matchup is even more pristine. The Giants enter the game ranked dead last in passing yards allowed (1,038), yards allowed per attempt (10.5), and PFF coverage grade (32.0).

On average, no defense has seen opposing pass attempts travel further downfield than the Giants (10.6 yards).

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Giants cornerback Janoris Jenkins (20),  Buccaneers receiver Chris Godwin (12)

Keenum turned in a stinker on Monday night with five turnovers, but on the season, he has been solid, completing 86-of-124 passes (69.4%) for 933 yards (7.5 yards per attempt) with a 7-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with all three picks coming against the top-flight Bears defense.

With at least five grabs and a touchdown in each of his first three games, I REALLY like the rookie wideout Terry McLaurin. Although Reed (concussion) continues to miss time, Paul Richardson, Chris Thompson, Trey Quinn and Vernon Davis alongside McLaurin provide Keenum with solid arsenal of weapons to carve up New York’s league-worst pass defense.

Ultimately, the Giants should still have the edge thanks to third downs. Washington and the Giants come into the game ranked 23rd and 24th in third-down percentage (32.3% and 30.6%, respectively), but the Giants went 5-for-26 (19.2%) in Eli Manning’s two starts but 6-of-13 (46.2%) in Jones’ first start. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Giants -2.5
  • Projected Total: 49.5

The Jones era started with a bang.

The rookie led the Giants to a thrilling 32-31 victory in Tampa Bay. But anything Jones does — good or bad — is going to be amplified by the media, so I expected this line to open in the -4 to -4.5 range. The -3 opener was a bit lower than I expected, but there’s some value in taking the key number +3 here, which is still available at some books as of Thursday evening.

Barkley, who is set to miss four to eight weeks, is one of the the rare running backs who has a case for being worth 0.5-1 point to the spread. The Redskins are equipped to take advantage of the Giants’ porous pass defense and are sneaky underdogs to back off the public’s post-Jones debut sugar high. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

Underdogs have historically performed well in division games as increased familiarity among opponents keeps games competitive, and it’s been profitable to bet small dogs in these matchups to win outright.

Even though teams matching this Pro System have a losing record of 110-113-2, bettors have still been able to turn a profit due to plus-money bets. A $100 gambler would have returned a profit of $4,770 following this strategy since 2003.

The Redskins +130 are a match for this system.John Ewing

Expert Pick

Mike Randle: Giants -3

The Giants’ offense exploded in last week’s 32-31 win at Tampa Bay, with Jones enjoying a breakout performance.

They face defense that has allowed an average of 271 passing yards and three touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks. Washington’s pass defense has been a sieve, ranking 28th overall in defensive DVOA per Football Outsiders.

Meanwhile, Keenum ranks fourth with 933 passing yards as a result of overwhelming negative game scripts in the face of an 0-3 start. The Giants pass defense has been even worse than Washington, ranking 31st in pass defense DVOA, trailing only Miami.

With the second-highest over/under of Week 4, this projects as a high pass volume shootout, but one the Giants should win with a superior offensive line. Washington will continue to miss holdout offensive tackle Trent Williams and dual-threat ability of Jones will further frustrate a struggling Washington defense.

Jones and the Giants should provide enough points to cover the short spread at home.


Buccaneers at Rams Betting Odds

  • Odds: Rams -9.5
  • Total: 49
  • Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Buccaneers struggled to defend Giants QB Daniel Jones in his first career start, so how will they plan for Jared Goff and the Rams?

Our experts cover the most important angles of this game, including Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Buccaneers-Rams Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Rams

The Rams always seem to be healthy. C Austin Blythe (ankle) and TE Tyler Higbee (chest) were upgraded to full practice on Thursday, but DE Michael Brockers (illness) was downgraded to a missed practice.

The big injury of note on the Buccaneers is WR Chris Godwin (hip) who has two straight missed practices. Whether he participates on Friday will likely indicate if he’ll be active this weekend. C Ryan Jensen (back) has also missed consecutive practices, which isn’t ideal since he rates as Pro Football Focus’s best pass-blocking center. Justin Bailey

buccaneers-rams-betting-odds-pick-preview-nfl-week 4-2019
Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff

Biggest Mismatch

Jared Goff at Home vs. Tampa Bay Pass Defense

Tampa Bay has one of the best run defenses in football, ranking second in run defense DVOA per Football Outsiders. However, it’s their pass defense that will need to address the mismatch on the road against Goff.

In 2018, Goff’s home/road splits were drastic.

Goff averaged almost 100 passing yards more at home and more than double the amount of passing touchdowns. In the Rams’ only home game in Week 2, Goff posted the overall QB8 stat line (283 passing yards, one touchdown) despite dominating the game after New Orleans lost quarterback Drew Brees in the first quarter.

Tampa Bay allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in 2018, and were torched by tight end Evan Engram (six receptions, 113 yards, one touchdown) and wide receiver Sterling Shepard (7/100/1) in Sunday’s loss.

The Buccaneers’ secondary is also not very active, ranking 17th with only 11 passes defended this season.

Tampa Bay will travel across the country with a defense that just allowed Jones to post the second overall fantasy QB line with four total touchdowns. The Buccaneers have given up 30-plus points to San Francisco and New York at home. They will need to play much better against Sean McVay’s explosive offense. Mike Randle

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Rams -9.5
  • Projected Total: 49

This time last year, a Rams-Bucs matchup would’ve generated a total in the 56-point range.

The Buccaneers have not only improved defensively this season, but they also appear willing to rein Jameis Winston in as more of a game manager in an attempt to prevent careless turnovers. But in this specific matchup, as 9.5-point underdogs, the Bucs might be left with no choice but to let him air it out.

With the total down to 48.5 at some books, we have a bit of value in the over. The game flow should also lend itself to that. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

Randle: Rams -9.5

Tampa Bay would need to play its best defensive game of the season, and it still might not be enough.

Similar to last week’s Vikings-Raiders game, the Buccaneers are facing a team that is better on both sides of the ball. Goff has been prolific at home and the Los Angeles defense is one of the NFL’s best. The Rams are fifth-best in team defense DVOA including the fifth-best pass defense. Cornerbacks Aqib Talib, Marcus Peters and Nickell Robey-Coleman are poor matchups for Tampa Bay’s receiving core.

The Buccaneers’ offensive line has struggled in pass blocking, especially Demar Dotson who ranks 73rd among qualified offensive tackles.

The Rams’ defensive personnel has shined with defensive tackle Aaron Donald (third), linebacker Cory Littleton (fifth) and safety Eric Weddle (10th) all ranking in the top 10 at their position as per Pro Football Focus.

Los Angeles is likely to continue its prolific scoring ways at home while their highly efficient defense will slow the mistake-prone Winston. Take the Rams to score big and win big at home on Sunday.

John Ewing:  1H Under 24.5

Early in the season, it has been profitable to bet first-half unders with high totals. This strategy works because offenses typically need a few games to hit their stride and it is just easier for an under to hit in a high total game.

This system performs better when the full game total has decreased by at least a 0.5-point. The line decreasing in an indication of sharp action on the under. Since 2005, in games matching this scenario the under has gone 76-41-6 (65%).

This first-half total is 24.5 points making it a match for this system. The full game total has also decreased from 50 to 48.5.


Seahawks at Cardinals Betting Odds

  • Odds: Seahawks -5
  • Total: 48
  • Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: FOX

After winning close games in Weeks 1 and 2, the Seahawks fell to the Drew Brees-less Saints as home favorites. Will the Seahawks rebound on the road in Week 4? And more importantly, will they cover the spread?

Read below for Sean Koerner’s odds, mismatches to note, a profitable betting system with a match for this game and more.

Seahawks-Cardinals Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Cardinals

The Cardinals are in good shape as most players I’m tracking are trending toward playing with the exception of WR Damiere Byrd (hamstring). Byrd represents 13% of the target share on the Cardinals, which could open up more targets for Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and KeeSean Johnson if he were to miss this game.

Rashaad Penny (hamstring) managed a limited practice on Thursday, but otherwise, they’re healthy on the offensive side of the ball. They could be down some key players on defense with DE Quinton Jefferson (hip) missing both practices so far and DE Ziggy Ansah getting downgraded to DNP on Thursday. Jefferson grades out as the Seahawks’ best overall defender, per Pro Football Focus. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Seahawks Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense

Although the Seahawks have a run-first offense, they’re one of the most effective deep-passing teams in the league thanks to Russell Wilson, who is second to only Patrick Mahomes with his 137.5 QB rating on deep passes (20-plus yards) and 343 deep passing yards (per Pro Football Focus).

Although only 9.5% of Wilson’s completions have come on deep passes, 38.1% of his passing yardage has been earned on those attempts. When the Seahawks go downfield, they do it well.

It helps that they have two excellent deep-ball receivers in Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, both of whom are top-10 in deep targets (7, 8), deep receiving yards (140, 149) and deep catch rate (57.1%, 50%).

nfl week 4 betting odds-seahawks vs. cardinals-dk metcalf
Photo credit: Steven Bisig-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: D.K. Metcalf

As for the Cardinals, they are without starting cornerbacks Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg, injured reserve). On the outside, Metcalf and the Jaron Brown-David Moore combination should be able to exploit the fill-in corners.

And in the middle of the field, Lockett and tight end Will Dissly should dominate. Slot cornerback Tramaine Brock has allowed a 10-229-2 receiving line on 16 targets. In each game this year, he’s allowed at least 70 yards. And strong safety D.J. Swearinger is having a horrible campaign, as evidenced by his 37.5 PFF coverage grade and 8-103-3 receiving line allowed on 11 targets.

The Cardinals are one of the four most generous teams to opposing passing games with 918 receiving yards and 1,129 air yards allowed.

The Seahawks will probably rely on the running game against the Cardinals. That’s just how they operate. But when they opt for the pass — and especially when they attack downfield — they will likely have success.

Wilson has opened the season with multiple touchdowns every week and 300-plus yards passing in two of three games. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him rack up another 300-yard, multi-touchdown game against the Cardinals. Matthew Freedman

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Seahawks -3.5
  • Projected Total: 48.5

The Cardinals are one of the most exciting teams in the league with their Air Raid and No. 1 draft pick dual-threat QB in Kyler Murray, but they’re still a very bad team.

I warned about overrating the 2-0 Seahawks last week as they won both games by a combined three points, and they’re still going to be overrated by the market. The opening number of 3.5 has jumped to 5.5. And while this does not include very valuable numbers in 4 and 5, it might end up getting up to -6, in which case we absolutely need to consider taking the Cardinals if they get to +6. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

Underdogs have historically performed well in division games, as increased familiarity among opponents keeps games competitive. In fact, it’s been profitable to bet small dogs in these matchups to win outright.

Even though teams matching this Pro System have a losing record of 110-113-2, bettors have still been able to turn a profit due to plus-money bets. A $100 gambler would have returned a profit of $4,770 following this strategy since 2003.

The Cardinals +200 are a match for this system. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Sonny Banks: Over 47 or better

We have seen for three weeks now that the Seahawks’ secondary is not what it once was. They rank in the middle of the pack for yards allowed per pass attempt, but you need to also factor in the QBs they’ve faced (Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph for a half, and Teddy Bridgewater). They’re also not getting to the QB as much as previous seasons with a 5.08% sack rate.

Seattle is stout against the run, but the Cardinals have shown that they prefer to employ a fast-paced offense with Kyler Murray airing it out. The concern with taking the over is Seattle’s 27th-ranked offensive pace, but this should be countered by Arizona allowing 6.3 defensive yards/play, which ranks in the bottom-third of the league.

My projected total is 49.


Vikings at Bears Betting Odds

  • Odds: Bears -2
  • Total: 38.5
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

This matchup features two defenses that rank in the top five in terms of points allowed per game. The Bears’ offense, however, ranks 30th in yards per offensive play, ahead of only the Jets and Dolphins. While the Bears are small favorites at home, more than 60% of bettors are taking the Vikings as of Thursday with tickets essentially split on the total.

So what can we expect from Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears offense at Soldier field?

Our analysts break down the most angles of this divisional matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds, a Pro System match and a staff pick.

Vikings-Bears Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Vikings

The Vikings could be down their best pass-blocking offensive lineman with Josh Kline still in the concussion protocol. This isn’t great news for Kirk Cousins as the Bears rate as Pro Football Focus’ best pass-rushing unit.

I’d be surprised if Taylor Gabriel (concussion) suits up after missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Kicker Eddy Pinerio (knee) hasn’t practiced this week, and defensive lineman Akiem Hicks (knee) is expected to be a game-time decision. With defensive lineman Bilal Nichols (hand) out, Dalvin Cook’s matchup could get easier if Hicks were to be ruled out. Justin Bailey

Harrison Barden-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dalvin Cook

Biggest Mismatch

Bears Pass Rush vs. Vikings Offensive Line

The Vikings enter Week 4 averaging a 1970s-esque 34.3 rushing attempts per game. Part of it is they want to feed Cook, but another part of it is they can’t pass block a lick.

As the Vikings go on the road to face a ferocious Khalil Mack-led Bears pass rush that ranks seventh in quarterback hits (21), fifth in sacks (11), and first in PFF’s team pass rushing grade (84.8), they have to figure out a way to survive with a pass protection unit ranked 31st in PFF’s grades (50.7).

This might come into focus more because the Bears rank fifth in PFF’s run defense grades (76.2), making them much better equipped to slow down Cook than the Vikings’ previous three opponents, the Falcons (16th; 67.3), Packers (18th; 66.5) and Raiders (30th; 56.6). — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Bears -2.5
  • Projected Total: 39

Bookmakers set what I feel was an aggressive opening line of Bears -3. Predictably, they have been flooded with Vikings tickets (73%) and money (87%) as of writing (see live public betting data here). The early action has forced them to move off the key number and all the way down to -2.

As the line moves toward a pick ’em, it will only open up a bit more value on the Bears, whose offense is starting to show signs of life. However, this is likely a matchup I’m going to pass on. Sean Koerner

PRO System Match

Underdogs have historically performed well in division games as increased familiarity among opponents keeps games competitive, and it’s been profitable to bet small dogs in these matchups to win outright.

Even though teams matching this Pro System have a losing record of 110-113-2, bettors have still been able to turn a profit due to plus-money bets.

A $100 gambler would have returned a profit of $4,770 following this strategy since 2003. The Vikings +112 are a match for this system in Week 4. John Ewing

Expert Pick

Stuckey: Why I’m Using the Vikings in Teasers

Minnesota is the ultimate teaser piece this week. You’re not only teasing the Vikings up through key numbers of 3, 4, 6 and 7, but you’re doing so in a game with the second-lowest total of the week in what should be a rock fight.

From an Xs and Os perspective, the Vikings are gonna bring pressure with Everson Griffen and Danielle Hunter, who both rank inside the top-25 of Pro Football Focus’ pass-rushing grades for edge defenders. And Trubisky is (still) terrible under pressure. He has a 41.4% completion percentage while under pressure compared to 74.3% with a clean pocket through three weeks (per PFF).

Trubisky’s struggles against any defense with a pulse is well documented. Not surprisingly, the much maligned Bears QB has not performed well in four career games against Minnesota: He has a 69.0 QB rating and has averaged 158.5 yards, two touchdowns, three interceptions and a sub-60% completion percentage per game against the Vikings.

I expect Minnesota to scheme pressure and bring blitzes from all over to throw Trubisky off even more.

In a game where the first team to 20 likely wins, teasing the dog through 3 and 7 is invaluable.


Jaguars at Broncos Betting Odds

  • Odds: Denver -3
  • Total: 38
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: CBS

The Jaguars haven’t had much to be happy about this season, but rookie quarterback Gardner Minshew has been a surprising bright spot. Minshew nearly won his first road game at Houston and heads to Denver for a meeting with the 0-3 Broncos.

So far the market is split in terms of betting tickets, but nearly two-thirds of bettors like the under as of Thursday. What can we expect from the exciting rookie in Week 4?

Our analysts break down the most angles of this matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds, and our favorite picks.

Jaguars-Broncos Injury Report

The biggest question marks for the Broncos are linebacker Josey Jewell (hamstring) and corner Kareem Jackson (hamstring), who’ve missed both practices this week. Their potential absences wouldn’t be ideal since Jackson has a respectable 70.9 coverage grade from Pro Football Focus and Jewell is one of their best run defenders. Jewell’s potential absence would be good news for Leonard Fournette, however.

The most noteworthy storyline from the Jaguars is cornerback Jalen Ramsey who is dealing with a back injury, but also the birth of his child. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Ramsey sit this one out. Justin Bailey

Biggest Mismatch

Jaguars Pass Rush vs. Broncos Offensive Line

Much has been made of whether Ramsey will ever play for the Jaguars again, but even if he does suit up at Mile High, odds are he won’t have to cover for long on each play.

The Jags enter Week 4 tied for first in the NFL for sacks (13), while the Broncos rank 26th in adjusted sack rate, Football Outsiders’ advanced metric which adjusts sacks for down, distance, and situation. Left tackle Garrett Bolles ranks 32nd in PFF’s pass-blocking grades, and right tackle Elijah Wilkinson ranks 63rd, meaning the Broncos are essentially getting replacement-level play from the bookends of their offensive line.

That won’t cut it against Pro Bowler and former First-Team All Pro Calais Campbell (three sacks, six QB hits), rookie first-rounder Josh Allen (two sacks, four QB hits) and Yannick Ngakoue, who finished top-three in QB hits last season (33).

Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Yannick Ngakoue

With Joe Flacco under center — his 69.0 passer rating off play action this year ranks 34th — the Broncos have little hope to slow down Jacksonville’s pass rush if they fall behind.

Despite a solid stable of talent at the skill positions, shoddy roster construction at quarterback and along the O-line has doomed the Broncos under John Elway in the post-Gary Kubiak era and led to the franchise consistently falling short of expectations, as evidenced by their 11-22-2 against the spread record (6-9-2 at home) since Kubiak left after 2016. — Chris Raybon

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Broncos -3.5
  • Projected Total: 38.5

Yes, Minshew is a flashy rookie quarterback who has been one of the better surprises of 2019. However, this should be a defensive struggle and I don’t see any value in it at this point. Sean Koerner

Expert Pick

PJ Walsh: Under 38.5

It probably won’t take much for me to convince everyone that this is going to be a low-scoring game. In fact, the total sits at 38.5 at PointsBet, so oddsmakers see a defensive battle as well.

But even with the low number, I still think there’s enough value to play the under. Why? Because the market has yet to react to what appears to be a brutal weather forecast in Denver.

Sports Insights’ hourly weather forecast is calling for sustained winds of 19 mph blowing across the field throughout the game.

According to Bet Labs, NFL games played in double-digit winds have gone under the total 56% of the time since 2003. But as I mentioned above, breezes are expected to be much heavier than just “double digits,” and gusts could be downright troublesome.

The National Weather Service says gusts could reach 40-50 mph Sunday in Denver, which certainly won’t help any of these passing offenses.