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We have a fully loaded slate on tap in the NBA tonight, and the prop market is full of value waiting to be exploited.
Our Action Network staff has combed through the matchups, rotations, and defensive schemes to find the best angles on the board.
Continue below for our NBA player prop picks and predictions for Wednesday, October 21.
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NBA Player Props for Wednesday, October 21
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Timberwolves vs. Heat
Davion Mitchell Over 5.5 Assists (-120)
By Joe Dellera
We know exactly how the Heat are going to operate this season: the offense is going to run through Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo. They have surrounded those two with as much talent as possible, but Davion Mitchell has a very clear, very defined role in this system.
Mitchell doesn't need to do too much else besides just find a head of steam a couple of times and distribute the basketball. His tenacious point-of-attack and off-ball defense are going to keep him on the floor for heavy rotation minutes, and Miami desperately needs him to handle the rock.
When you look at the personnel changes they made, bringing in guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Klay Thompson, those are strictly shooters; they are not guys you want handling the basketball. Even with Andrew Wiggins, you do not necessarily want him dribbling the ball up the court.
Miami needs a true point guard out there to take the ball-handling pressure off Giannis and Bam, and Davion Mitchell knows and embraces that role comfortably. He takes pride in facilitating the offense and doesn't feel the need to force up his own shots just to feel productive.
In a game with a ridiculously high projected pace and total, Mitchell should have plenty of opportunities to push the tempo and feed his downhill threats in Giannis and Bam.
Getting six assists in this fast-paced environment should be a very attainable floor for him.
Pick: Davion Mitchell Over 5.5 Assists (-120)Â
Hawks vs. Magic
Wendell Carter Jr. 15+ Points & Assists (+175)
By Matt Moore
I am taking Wendell Carter Jr. to record 15 or more Points and Assists at +175, though you can easily take the standard Over 11.5 PA line at -118 if you want to play it a bit more conservatively.
I am explicitly avoiding his rebounding props because he is matching up against Onyeka Okongwu, which is a tough spot on the glass, so I want to focus strictly on his offensive production.
The Magic showed a lot of really positive schematic adjustments in the preseason, specifically in how they utilize WCJ. They have been spreading him out to the corner and running various actions where a shooter, typically Tristan Da Silva, will crash while Carter drifts.
Carter isn't quite a lethal enough perimeter threat to prevent defenders from playing free safety off of him, but he is very smart and athletic. The moment his defender turns his head, WCJ sneaks inside to the dunker spot for easy finishes, and he's still capable of knocking down the open three when needed. He is simply not accounted for enough on the scouting report in these specific areas.
Additionally, if the Magic are running more spread concepts with Franz Wagner initiating the offense, it creates far more opportunities for Carter to operate as a hub for big-to-big passing situations down low to Paolo Banchero.
Carter is a smart player at this stage of his career, and he will gladly make those connective reads. If Wagner is racking up assists as the engine, Carter Jr. is going to be one of the main beneficiaries of those looks.
Pick: Wendell Carter Jr. 15+ Points & Assists (+175)Â
Hornets vs. Nets
Day'Ron Sharpe Over 21.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-125)
Day'Ron Sharpe is a hyper-efficient big who has been extremely productive as a backup with the Nets, but he's been thrust into a starting role this season.
Per 36 minutes last season, he averaged a monstrous 17/13/4.5. Sharpe projects to play in the 30-minute range in a really advantageous matchup with a weak Hornets frontcourt.
Pick: Day'Ron Sharpe Over 21.5 Points, Rebounds, & Assists (-125)Â
Pacers vs. Pelicans
Tyrese Haliburton Over 26.5 Points & Assists (-125)
By Joe Dellera
I am grabbing Tyrese Haliburton to go over 26.5 points & assists, and honestly, I will probably sprinkle some on his double-double prop at plus-money (+157 at DraftKings) as well.
I love betting on Haliburton; I was hammering his props two years ago before he got hurt, and I genuinely believe this is one of those spots where his line is going to balloon into the 30s (like 29.5 or 30.5) in the next couple of weeks.
I know there is always a little bit of risk early in the season regarding how a guy is going to look or if his minutes will be monitored, but he looked awesome in the preseason.
I try not to put too much stock into preseason box scores, but I know Haliburton is feeling good physically because he was out there talking trash on the floor. When he's doing that, you know he is dialed in.
The entire Indiana offense runs squarely through him; their whole identity is built around what Haliburton does as the primary table-setter. He is an elite facilitator who can effortlessly create his own shot, and now he has a brand new, highly effective pick-and-roll partner in Ivica Zubac. I think they are going to form a really dangerous combination.
The Pacers are matching up against a Pelicans team that I am pretty low on overall, but one that likes to push the tempo. New Orleans played at the fourth-highest pace in the league during the preseason.
This is should be the perfect environment for Haliburton to carve up their defense.
Pick: Tyrese Haliburton Over 26.5 Points & Assists (-125)Â
Suns vs. Trail Blazers
Devin Booker Under 5.5 Assists (+106)
By Matt Moore
Devin Booker came into the season talking about how he needed to get back to scoring. He’s a gifted passer and operated as a playmaker last year but didn’t enjoy it. Much of that burden is expected to transfer to Jalen Green.
I want to test the theory in a matchup against a fundamentally good defense in Portland, especially since I also like the under on the full game total.
Pick: Devin Booker Under 5.5 Assists (+106)Â
Kings vs. Clippers
Darius Acuff Over 17.5 Points (-115)
The Kings are going to be a disaster, but the season is going to be built around handing the keys to the future to Darius Acuff.
There are going to be some ups and downs for the rookie in terms of efficiency, but thankfully, the Clippers are a good matchup for the opener.
In 96 preseason minutes, Acuff got up a crazy 59 shots (and 13 FTs). It may not always be pretty, but he's going to score a ton of points for the Kings this season.
