The SMU Mustangs (4-2) take on the Clemson Tigers (3-3) in Clemson, South Carolina, on Saturday, Oct. 18. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network.
Clemson is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -170. SMU enters as a 3.5-point underdog and comes in at +145 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under, meanwhile, sits at 50 points.
Here’s my SMU vs. Clemson predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 18.
SMU Mustangs vs Clemson Tigers Prediction, Pick
- SMU vs. Clemson Pick: SMU +9.5
My Clemson vs. SMU best bet is on the Mustangs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
SMU vs Clemson Odds
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 50 -110o / -110u | +145 |
| Clemson Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 50 -110o / -110u | -170 |
- SMU vs Clemson Spread: Clemson -3.5, SMU +3.5
- SMU vs Clemson Over/Under: 50 Points
- SMU vs Clemson Moneyline: SMU +145, Clemson -170
SMU vs Clemson College Football Week 8
Saturday's SMU vs. Clemson college football clash fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
Called "Small Dog in Small Game," this system is built around the idea that underdogs in lower-profile matchups can be undervalued when attention and betting volume are limited.
These games typically kick off in the afternoon or evening window and occur early in the season (within the first nine contests) when teams are still developing identities.
The underdog in this range is small to moderate, with spreads between 2 and 11.5 points, and often comes into the game with little momentum, having won or lost only a game or two in a short streak.
Because betting activity on these contests is lower than the daily average, the market is less efficient, and lines move very little from open to close, creating opportunities where perception has more influence than true performance.
When public money leans toward the favorite but not overwhelmingly, the small 'dog benefits from value created by these market dynamics and covers more often than expected.
This system boasts an all-time record of 655-486-23, good for a winning percentage of 57.4% and an ROI of 11.2%. In 2025 alone, this games fitting this system have cashed at a 55% clip.
How To Make Clemson vs SMU Picks
It's been clear all season that this isn't the Clemson of years past.
The Tigers lost to a top-10 LSU team, 17-10, in the opener, but the problems started to arise after that. Dabo Swinney's bunch trailed Troy at halftime before winning by 11, but it lost to Georgia Tech and Syracuse in back-to-back games immediately after.
One of SMU's biggest advantages comes on the defensive side of the ball. The Mustangs rank 31st in Finishing Drives allowed, while the Tigers sit at 103rd on offense. If the Ponies can make the Tigers settle for field goals instead of touchdowns, they can stay in this game.
Action Network's analytics team makes this game closer to Clemson -7.5 than -9.5, so we'll take a little bit of value with the road underdog.
Pick: SMU +9.5
SMU vs Clemson Channel, Start Time, Streaming
- Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ACC Network
- Locatoin: Memorial Stadiu, Clemson, South Carolina
SMU vs Clemson Betting Trends
