The Troy Trojans take on the ULM Warhawks in Monroe, Louisiana. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. EDT on ESPN+.
Troy is favored by 6 points on the spread with a moneyline of -225. The total is set at 45.5 points.
Here’s my Troy vs. ULM prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 18, 2025.
Troy vs ULM Prediction
- Troy vs. ULM Pick: ULM +6 or Better
My ULM vs. Troy best bet is on the Warhawks to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Troy vs ULM Odds
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| LA-Monroe Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +185 |
- Troy vs ULM point spread: Troy -6 (-110), ULM +6 (-110)
- Troy vs ULM over/under: 45.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Troy vs ULM moneyline: Troy -225, ULM +185
Troy vs ULM Pick
Has Troy turned a corner after three straight victories?
I'm not sold.
The Trojans had a miraculous comeback on the road against Buffalo after the Bulls lost their starting quarterback to injury. This led Troy to come back from 17-0 down in the fourth quarter to pull out a 21-17 victory.
Over the next two weeks, Troy added two more wins — both coming in overtime.
One came at home against 1-6 South Alabama, and the other against Texas State, which led 28-7 after the first quarter and missed a 42-yard game-winning field goal at the end of regulation after finishing with more than 125 total net yards.
Can they keep this charade up?
It's possible, but I believe the Trojans are over-inflated in the market compared to my numbers. Plus, they find themselves in a tough situational spot with their third road game over the past four games, following three miraculous victories that took every possible minute and some.
Backup quarterback Tucker Kilcrease has played better over the past two games after looking completely inept after taking over the job due to injury. He had a dazzling performance against Texas State last week, but his prior two performances did come against two bottom-15 defenses.
ULM doesn't have an elite defense by any stretch (and its special teams are dreadful, which worries me a bit), but the Warhawks are materially better than both South Alabama and Texas State. They actually rank in the top-25 nationally in the more predictive Early Downs EPA per Play allowed, but bottom-15 in late-down Success Rate allowed.
Meanwhile, Troy's offense ranks in the bottom-10 nationally in Early Downs EPA, but has made its hay with a top-50 Success Rate on late downs.
That screams late down regression, so don't be surprised if Troy struggles on third and fourth downs in this game.
The Warhawks will make this game ugly with a heavy rushing volume against a poor Troy run defense and ultimately grind it to a halt as one of the slowest teams in the nation. That certainly makes the home pup more intriguing in a game that I project closer to a field goal than six.
Pick: ULM +6 or Better
