The USC Trojans take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in South Bend, IN, on Saturday, Oct. 18. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Notre Dame is favored by 9 points on the spread with a moneyline of -330. USC, meanwhile, enters as a +9 underdog and is +265 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 61.5 points.
Here’s my USC vs. Notre Dame prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 18.
USC Trojans vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Prediction, Picks
USC vs. Notre Dame Pick: Notre Dame Team Total Over 35.5 · Jadarian Price Over 61.5 Rushing Yards
My Notre Dame vs. USC best bet is on the Fighting Irish to go over their team total and Notre Dame running back Jadarian Price to go over his rushing yardage player prop. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
USC vs Notre Dame Odds, Spread, Line
| USC Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 60.5 -108o / -112u | +300 |
| Notre Dame Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 60.5 -108o / -112u | -360 |
- USC vs Notre Dame Point Spread: Notre Dame -10.5, USC +10.5
- USC vs Notre Dame Total Points: 60.5
- USC vs Notre Dame ML: Notre Dame ML -360, USC ML +300
USC vs Notre Dame NCAAF Week 8 Preview
USC Trojans Betting Preview
Although USC isn't technically playing in a conference game, traveling to Big Ten territory has not been kind to head coach Lincoln Riley.
The Trojans have yet to win a Big Ten road game two time zones east of Los Angeles, most recently suffering a loss to Illinois on Sept. 27.
However, the late kickoff might be an advantage for an offense that's one of the most potent in the nation.
USC has a balanced attack that ranks as the best nationally in standard downs efficiency, but it now must deal with a massive injury.
Running back Waymond Jordan put up great numbers in counter, inside zone and power, but the Trojans will now be without their star after an ankle injury.
Freshman King Miller has flashed in 29 rushing attempts this season, recently creating three explosives against Michigan.
The passing attack has been just as good with quarterback Jayden Maiava leading the best offense in quality drives. The junior is rising up the Heisman ranks thanks to 13 big-time throws and just two interceptions on the season.
Maiava has put up a massive 67% Success Rate against Cover 1, a coverage most likely implemented by the Notre Dame defense.
The wide receiver group is also at full health with the recent return of Ja'Kobi Lane.
USC's struggles have come on the defensive side of the ball, as coordinator D'Anton Lynn has seen opponent rushing attacks dice up the Trojans.
A rank of 112th in defensive rush efficiency and 119th in Defensive Line Yards comes from a failure to stop opponents using inside zone and power concepts.
Although there are strong numbers in the Havoc department, USC comes in as one of the worst secondaries in the nation in terms of pass breakups and interceptions.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish Betting Preview
Offensive coordinator Mike Denbrock has found his groove with the Irish roster, averaging 44 points per game after two losses to start the season.
Notre Dame ranks fourth nationally in standard downs explosives, sitting top-25 in both Rush and Pass EPA.
Running backs Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love have combined for 15 touchdowns to just two fumbles, and both average at least 3.6 yards after first contact.
Notre Dame has been nearly unstoppable running outside zone in 11 personnel, generating a 54% Success Rate and adding an explosive on one of every four snaps.
Freshman quarterback CJ Carr leads a passing attack that ranks top-20 in Success Rate.
The top four targets are all averaging more than two yards per route run, the barrier at which a pass-catcher is considered explosive.
Notre Dame may be the best hitch/comeback route team in the nation, averaging a 92% Success Rate with a massive 1.3 EPA per Attempt on those routes.
The Irish have improved on defense over the past two games against Boise State and NC State, allowing just a single explosive run.
Notre Dame ranks 111th in Defensive Line Yards against the 11th-toughest schedule in the nation. The issue comes against teams that use man blocking tendencies, as zone read concepts have been shut down by the nickel defense.
USC vs Notre Dame NCAAF Week 8 Pick
Injuries are a concern for the Trojans heading into South Bend, not only missing Jordan in the backfield, but potentially others in the trenches.
Anchor left tackle Elijah Paige didn't play against Michigan, as substitute Tobias Raymond posted a poor run blocking grade. Center Kilian O'Connor also missed the win over the Wolverines and doesn't have an estimated return date.
The great news for Notre Dame is that USC's blueprint run concepts revolve around zone read and power, not the man blocking schemes that have haunted the Irish defense.
The USC defense may be hard-pressed to stop Price and Love out of the backfield. Both running backs will mix inside and outside zone read concepts, an area the Trojans have struggled to defend.
If the USC defense forces Notre Dame into passing downs, the Irish rank fourth in efficiency and 21st in converting third downs.
Mother Nature will have her say in this game, as South Bend could see thunderstorms all day Saturday. The weather could change in the time between writing and kickoff, but keep an eye on winds expected to gust at more than 20 mph.
The Notre Dame offense will have no issues running against the Trojans defense, considering the run concepts at play and the possibility of a wet field.
With USC's injury issues on the offensive line, combined with poor historical travel in Big Ten territory, investments on the Notre Dame team total and rushing props are in order.
Pick: Notre Dame Team Total Over 35.5 · Jadarian Price Over 61.5 Rushing Yards or Better
