Bills vs. Rams Odds & Betting Predictions - October 13, 2026

Tracking some 1H from discord live show

Trust me, I wish after doing my deep dive on this game that the value was on a Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Josh Allen or even my guy Blake Corum OVER, especially since I’m probably going to the game lol. Sadly, this is where I landed. And these are the absolute worst props from a content standpoint. If anyone tails, it’ll either be a quiet/easy win everyone forgets about, or Knox catches one 10-yard pass and everyone remembers I was the sicko who turned them onto Dawson Knox longest reception under. Lose-lose for me lol. But all I really care about is finding value with the same process I’ve used forever, and over the long run that’s what matters. This is also just a tricky game to project with DJ Moore’s status completely up in the air. Even if he plays, there’s obviously some risk he aggravates the shoulder again. So when I’m locking in a prop like this, I’m basically building around the worst-case scenario and assuming DJM is out. If he plays, I actually think that helps this slightly. Knox should still run a route on roughly 40-45% of Allen’s dropbacks, but his role has changed quite a bit. He’s made a living as a TD threat and has an 11.6 career YPR, but his aDOT this year is a career-low 1.5 yards. He’s typically staying in to block, releasing late and becoming more of a safety valve for Allen. That does two things: his targets become way easier to catch, which helps explain why he’s caught 100% of them so far, but those catches are also happening much closer to the line of scrimmage. We’ve seen that role every week now, so at some point I have to assume it’s real. Of course he’s going to catch some 10+ yard passes this year. Maybe one happens here and we’re dead immediately. I might be the only betting analyst who spends this much time explaining exactly how his own bets can lose, but it’s football. It’s unpredictable at times and thats why we love it. There’s another angle I like, though. The Rams rank 3rd in pressure rate, and Knox has a 20% target rate when Allen is kept clean but has seen zero targets on 29 routes when Allen is pressured. Allen is usually getting to one of his first reads or taking off himself before Knox ever becomes part of the progression. Knox also hasn’t been a huge YAC guy throughout his career, while the Rams have been very tough on TEs. This is also a good example of how insanely sharp prop markets are now. I basically have Knox as a coin flip to catch 2+ passes and actually show slight value on Over 1.5 receptions +112, while at the same time having his median longest catch closer to 8 yards. I have around a 59% chance he stays under 9.5, and since I’m already assuming the tougher DJM-out scenario, I think the true number may be a tick above 60%.

Brandon’s Playground Week 5 pod

Personal PR agreement > Luck Game via @nick_giffen > Christian Benford will be a GTD and if he doesn’t play, those WR’s are going to feast on the home turf. Great spot for the Rams to remind folks why they’re the SB favs.

Sent out earlier in the week…. Analysis on my Twitter @ anderspicks Would play 3 for 2U still and to 3.5 -105 for 1U

Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Early szn Bounce Back Overall: 345-234-11,60% (ROI:15%) Season:13-6-1,68% (ROI:30%) Road underdog after being favored by at least seven Overall: 104-54-7,66% (ROI:28%) Season:1-2-0,33% (ROI:-34%) #TSA

@DougKezirian https://youtu.be/P3X8BD_4KTw?is=V8M5PRyqAGXxHS02

NFL POD

@gneiffer07 2 https://www.youtube.com/live/8jpyIU0RJwU?is=wCMMG3KOkzwpxK_Q

LIVE BET

📚Onyx Sign up for Onyx, use code sirlocks, spend $10 and get 50 in Bonus Picks Instantly 👉🔗 https://click.onyx-tracking.com/track/5aa2559b-584c-4dae-bd51-cf59559dfa64?type=social&s2=SIRLOCKS

Rest of TD Picks going up on @charliedisturco on X shortly

@The_Oddsmaker https://youtu.be/D-VSFIRKqec?is=hMOaINyXZnMG7eG3

Williams has had 24+ rec yards in three of four games this season, but ran routes on 69% of the Rams' drop backs in W4, while the Bills have given up the 7th most rec yards to opposing RBs.