Barcelona vs. Inter Milan Betting Preview & Expert Picks: Back this Same Game Parlay
Urbanandsport/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Barcelona star Robert Lewandowski.
- Barcelona and Inter Milan go head-to-head in the Champions League.
- Barcelona is clinging to its hopes to advance to the knockout stage and seeking a crucial win.
- Nicholas Hennion previews the match and offers up his best bet below.
Barcelona vs. Inter Milan Odds
| Barcelona Odds | -225 |
| Inter Odds | +575 |
| Draw | +375 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-175 / +125) |
| Day | Time | Wednesday | 3 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | Paramount+ |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute soccer odds here. | |
Clinging to its hopes of reaching the knockout round, Barcelona welcomes Inter Milan to the Camp Nou for its fourth Champions League fixture.
The Blaugrana are sitting on three points following their first three matches, while Inter arrives at this match with six points. In their head-to-head meeting last week, Inter escaped with a 1-0 victory in a match marred with VAR controversy.
Prior to last week's loss, Barcelona was unbeaten against Inter Milan and had won three of four games in continental competitions.
Barcelona
In its past two fixtures — at Bayern Munich and at Inter Milan — Barcelona has been very unlucky on the offensive end.
In those two fixtures, Barcelona has scored zero goals against 1.53 expected goals on target and four big scoring chances. Misfortune also came defensively last week against Inter as the Spanish outfit surrendered one goal against 0.54 xGOT and zero big scoring chances.
In better news, Barcelona now gets a chance at revenge in a venue where it has performed above-average.
In five combined home La Liga and Champions League fixtures, manager Xavi's side has a +2.48 xGOT differential per 90 minutes and has surrendered only 2.39 total xGOT, albeit against opposition inferior to Inter.
Inter Milan
If Inter is to crash Camp Nou and walk out with points, it will have to improve upon its underlying road metrics this year.
In five Serie A road fixtures, the Nerazzurri have a +0.15 xGOT differential and have created only 1.66 xGOT per 90 minutes, down from a total season-long average of 1.8 xGOT per 90 minutes.
On the defensive end, Inter has struggled to limit quality Serie A opposition this season. In three matches against Lazio, Milan and Roma, Inter's defense has conceded 1.77 xGOT per 90 minutes and four combined big scoring chances.
Finally, this remains an Inter side that has struggled against Spanish opposition in the Champions League. Across its past seven such fixtures, the Italian outfit is 1-6-0 (W-L-D), with the lone win coming last week.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Let's get the obvious out of the way and acknowledge that the Barcelona line is inflated in this matchup.
Did some bad luck go its way last week in Milan? Undoubtedly. But the La Liga leaders still only managed to create 0.39 xGOT against Inter's defense. Now they are favored by a goal-and-a-half at home? That's crazy.
All that said, I still think Barcelona is facing a must-win spot if it has any hopes of reaching the knockout round. While recognizing that the level of competition hasn't been the greatest, this is still a side that has won four straight at home and all five home matches on expected goals.
Combine that with the fact that Inter will likely play for a point and I expect another defensive affair where Inter forces Barcelona to break down a back-line and earn goals.
As a result, my top bet for this game is a same-game parlay of Barcelona moneyline and under 4.5 goals. At the current price, I show about 15 cents of value and would bet to -135.
The Pick: Same-Game Parlay: Barcelona ML & Total Under 4.5 Goals (-130)
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