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Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction, Odds, Pick — 10/18

Mississippi State vs Florida Prediction, Odds, Pick — 10/18 article feature image
4 min read
Credit:

Wesley Hale-Imagn Images. Pictured: Fluff Bothwell

Starting soon
Odds Updating Soon
Matchup - 10/18 8:15pm UTCSpreadTotalMoneyline
+9.5-108
o50.5-120
+280
-9.5-115
u50.5-110
-360

The Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the Florida Gators in Gainesville, FL. Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. ET on SEC Network.

Florida is favored by -9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -370. The total is set at 51 points.

Here’s my Mississippi State vs. Florida predictions and college football picks for Saturday, October 18, 2025.


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Mississippi State Bulldogs vs Florida Gators Prediction, Picks

Mississippi State vs. Florida Pick: Mississippi State +9.5

My Florida vs. Mississippi State best bet is on the Bulldogs to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.


Mississippi State vs Florida Odds, Line, Spread

Mississippi State Logo
Saturday, October 18
4:15 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Florida Logo
Mississippi State Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
+9.5
-108
50.5
-115o / -105u
+285
Florida Odds
SpreadTotalMoneyline
-9.5
-112
50.5
-115o / -105u
-360
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.
DraftKings Logo
  • Mississippi State vs Florida Spread: Florida -9.5, Mississippi State +9.5
  • Mississippi State vs Florida Total: 50.5
  • Mississippi State vs Florida ML: Mississippi State ML +285, Florida ML -360

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Mississippi State vs Florida College Football Betting Preview


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Mississippi State Bulldogs Betting Preview

SEC play hasn’t been very kind to the Bulldogs. They were incredibly close to beating Tennessee in Week 5, but then Texas A&M smoked them in Week 6.

Mississippi State was able to enjoy a bye to lick its wounds and reflect on what had happened in the previous few weeks.

Luckily, the Bulldogs are playing Florida, which has been a total disaster all season.

Quarterback Blake Shapen has been a beauty all season, completing 67.1% of his passes for nine passing touchdowns. However, the Bulldogs are currently 85th in Pass Play Success Rate, but tied for 52nd in Pass Down Success Rate.

He’s formed a legitimate connection with Brenen Thompson, who's hauled in 17 yards per catch, as well as Anthony Evans III, who brings in a ton of volume.

On the ground, South Alabama transfer Fluff Bothwell has been everything the Bulldogs have needed him to be. He’s been averaging 5.5 yards per carry, and the Tennessee game was huge for him, running for 134 yards and two touchdowns.

Defensively, the Bulldogs secondary has been really good – perhaps one of the better secondaries in the country. They’re currently ranked 27th in Pass Play Success Rate allowed.

DeAgo Brumfield, Jahron Manning and Kelley Jones all combine for 11 pass deflections, while Jayven Williams has developed a knack for forcing fumbles with two of them.


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Florida Gators Betting Preview

I’m not really sure what Florida is playing for right now.

The whole situation with Billy Napier has gotten so unbelievably weird that it’s crazy he’s willingly showing up to coach – especially when the program is reportedly looking for replacements.

Not only that, DJ Lagway continues to look like a disappointment, leading the SEC in interceptions.

No matter how many times the Gators try to throw the ball, there will inevitably be some kind of disaster, as they're posting a 76th-best Pass Play Success Rate and rank 89th in Pass Down explosiveness.

The run game is the only thing that does work out for Florida and yet, it hardly does it. The Gators run the ball in the lower percentile and are ranked 15th in Rushing Success Rate. Running back Jadan Baugh has done most of the brunt work, averaging just under five yards per carry.

What Florida does really well is stop the run, as it's ranked sixth in Rush Success Rate allowed and fifth in PPA allowed, which works out because Mississippi State isn’t great at running the ball.


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Mississippi State vs Florida NCAAF Week 8 Pick

It’s truly insane that Florida is a favorite in this game, let alone it being a 9.5-point favorite.

I don’t think Mississippi State is an amazing program or anything, but Florida is in such an apathetic state right now.

Word on the street is that Napier is on the chopping block as early as this weekend, so I reiterate … why is he coaching this week?

It feels like the morale is already shot for Florida. Lagway is helpless, and given how many interceptions he’s committed, I’m not feeling very good about the Gators prospects against this Mississippi State secondary until Napier moves on, even with this being in Gainesville.

Pick: Mississippi State +9.5

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