Seahawks vs. Broncos Odds & Betting Predictions - October 16, 2026

NoVig

From my TNF betting preview: https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/seattle-seahawks-vs-denver-broncos-prediction-pick-odds-nfl-thursday-night-football-october-15

I'm always looking to play RB receptions against Seattle, because Mike Macdonald's defense seems more than happy to concede them. Seattle has allowed the 5th most RB receptions this season with over five per game. That was the case last season too, when Seattle allowed the second fewest fantasy points to opposing RBs but the most RB receptions. That included 4+ RB catches in all but three games, with 6+ in 10 of them and 7+ in almost half. That sounds like R.J. Harvey's music to me. Harvey is one of the most obvious tells on the planet right now, with 76% of his snaps on pass plays. He's become Bo Nix's dump-off security blanket, especially as Nix seems reticent to run this season after the injury. That could be especially important against a ferocious pass rush that could have Nix on his heels all night. Harvey didn't have a catch or even a target last week, but that shouldn't be a surprise in a game where Denver finally played with a lead for the first time all season. If you expect Seattle to win or lead here, that puts Denver in passing situations and should mean Harvey catches. Outside of last week's dud, Harvey is averaging 6.7 catches for 44 receiving yards this season with games of 4, 6, and 10 catches. The YPC is terrible, and that's the usual for Seattle defensively too, so I want receptions not yards. Including the playoffs, Harvey has 4+ catches in nine of his last 11 games, with 5+ in almost half. I'll play Harvey over 3.5 receptions at -105 (MGM) and build a small Thursday night escalator with 5+ catches at +203 (Kalshi), 6+ at +375 (Hard Rock), and 8+ at +1500 (Hard Rock). https://www.actionnetwork.com/nfl/seahawks-vs-broncos-picks-props-odds-predictions-thursday-night-football-oct-15

Action Island

Underdogs have been killing it in primetime, but I really don’t see that continuing here. Our model makes the Seahawks -173 favorites, and I agree that they seem undervalued in this spot. The Broncos have been very unimpressive to me. Their last win over the Chargers was gifted to them, and they sit seventh in our luck rankings. This team is living and dying off screen passes and throws behind the line of scrimmage. Denver ranks 32nd in the NFL in average depth of target (aDOT) at just 5.81 yards. This isn’t a sustainable way to move the ball, especially against a Seattle defense that ranks second in defensive DVOA and second in fewest explosive plays allowed. The Broncos offense ranks 22nd in EPA/pass and 23rd in EPA/rush. This offense simply isn’t very good, and now it faces a Seattle defense that ranks third in success rate, second in EPA/pass, and third in EPA/rush. Seattle also ranks first in coverage grade and third in tackling. Bo Nix will not have a fun night. The Seahawks offense has definitely looked underwhelming, but they are still top 10 in points per game. Denver’s secondary is also banged up heading into tonight’s game, with Pat Surtain II and Talanoa Hufanga ruled out with ankle injuries and Riley Moss questionable with a rib injury. This game will come down to which defense can get stops and set its offense up with short fields, and I give that edge to the Seahawks. The only real advantage Denver has is its special teams. The Seahawks are coming off a tough loss to the 49ers in a game they still had a chance to win despite shooting themselves in the foot all game. This will be a tough environment, but I trust Mike Macdonald to have his team ready following that loss. Give me the Seahawks to win on the road.

@nick_giffen 1 https://www.youtube.com/live/cE4vdiLqV1g?is=qQ-zWBcY4XAUwhoI

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There may be some value on the receptions prop for J.K. Dobbins. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 0.71 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 1.37. The model believes there is a 78% chance he records fewer than 1.5 receptions. If you can get the under at -160 or better, there is some great value here. This play is good down to at least -213. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

Franklin saw his run routes increase to 59% from a season high of 34% last week and offers a value play in a game in which the Broncos should be chasing.