Giants vs 49ers Odds, Pick, Prediction | Saquon Barkley, Brandon Aiyuk Impact Thursday Night Football Total
Getty Images. Pictured: Brock Purdy and Daniel Jones.
Giants vs 49ers Odds Week 3
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -115 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | +450 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -105 | 43.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
NFL Week 3 kicks off with a 49ers vs. Giants pick for Thursday Night Football. bet365 has San Francisco as heavy 10.5-point favorites on the spread and -600 on the moneyline. The game total has settled in at 43.5 across all books.
New York prevented disaster in Week 2 by mounting an epic comeback against the Cardinals and escaping the desert with its first win. The Giants, however, lost Saquon Barkley to an ankle injury and will also be without guard Ben Bredeson and tackle Andrew Thomas. For the undefeated 49ers, Brandon Aiyuk is out with a shoulder injury, so San Francisco will have to rely on Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and company instead. Something tells us Brock Purdy will be fine either way.
Let's break down 49ers vs. Giants odds and make our betting pick and prediction for Thursday Night Football.
The Giants offense failed to score over their first six quarters of the season — then they erupted for 31 points in the second half last week to pull off the comeback win over the Cardinals.
Daniel Jones looked sharp in the second half, throwing for 259 yards and two touchdowns, while also adding a rushing touchdown. He’ll have a much tougher test in Week 3 against a 49ers defense that ranks second in DVOA.
The Giants will be without star running back Saquon Barkley. His absence may only be worth 0.5-1 points against the spread (ATS), but with LT Andrew Thomas and LG Ben Bredeson also ruled out, it’s going to be tough for New York to move the ball.
The 49ers have generated the fifth-highest pressure rate, so I expect Jones to face an above-average pressure rate, which could force him to use his legs and scramble more than usual. San Francisco’s defense allowed the third-lowest yards per attempt (Y/A) and sixth-lowest success rate allowed on designed QB runs and scrambles last season, so it should be up to the test of Jones.
The injuries to Barkley and the left side of the offensive line (mainly Thomas) lowers my Giants power rating by 1-1.5 points.
Bet New York vs. San Francisco at FanDuel
The 49ers are 2-0 and should also be 2-0 ATS if it weren’t for Sean McVay’s bizarre decision to kick a field goal while down 10 points for the backdoor cover.
The Giants defense ranks 29th and seems unlikely to slow down the 49ers’ high-octane offense. That being said, they might be able to slow Brock Purdy down with the blitz.
New York has blitzed at the third-highest rate in the league; Purdy has seen his success rate take a hit from fifth when not facing a blitz to 15th (out of 31 QBs) when facing the blitz. Purdy might be without Brandon Aiyuk, who is his top target when facing man coverage. The Giants have played man-to-man at the fifth-highest rate.
If Aiyuk is sidelined, it probably won’t have much of an impact on the spread. He’s probably worth 0.5-1 points, but the 49ers also have enough weapons on offense to keep scoring effectively. If any of McCaffrey, Samuel or Kittle were also ruled out, it would certainly have an impact on the spread.
Giants vs. 49ers
Betting Picks & Predictions
Aiyuk’s absence might not impact the 49ers’ power rating, but it could impact the total, on which I have him worth 0.5 points.
The 49ers may lean on the run game and attempt fewer passes downfield without Aiyuk, which would lead to a lower-scoring environment. Combine that with the trio of injuries the Giants offense is dealing with, and I think all signs point to the value being on the under.
The Giants will likely be unable to score enough points to force the 49ers offense to keep their foot on the gas for all four quarters.
Also of note: Shawn Hochuli will be the official in this game, and the under has gone 42-33 (56%) in games he’s officiated in his career.
I’m projecting this closer to 43.5 (43 if Aiyuk is ruled out). I got the under on Wednesday at 44.5, and I would still bet it at 44, which is a key number for NFL totals. I’m not confident this total will get back up to 45, which is less valuable of a number than 44. It slipped down to 43.5 on Thursday afternoon, and I still like that.
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