Grizzlies vs. Warriors Odds & Betting Predictions - April 16, 2025

Warriors allow 105.0 PPG in last 5 games. Grizz shooting 35.7% from 3, GS holding teams to 33.5%. Warriors at 112.5 PPG at home — slower tempo. Play-in pressure means longer possessions, fewer transition looks. Last matchup: MEM 44/92 FG, GS 42/99 — volume without efficiency. Warriors D allows just 46.7% FG at home. Grizz 17th in 2P%, under 78% FT. Both teams stall late — MEM down to 28.5 PPG in 4Q. Expect grind-out buckets, fewer fouls, playoff-style possessions. Under is 6-2 in GS last 8 at home. MEM 24-16-1 to Under on the road. Slower pace, fatigue from tighter rotations, and playoff urgency lean Under.

High-stakes game tonight with no margin for error — expect short leashes for role players, especially if they aren't contributing on both ends. One player I think gets his minutes squeezed is Buddy Hield. Hield has been averaging 9.7 PPG in 20.9 minutes over his last 15 games. But when you filter out non-playoff teams and only include games where Curry also played, his numbers dip to 7.8 PPG in 18.4 minutes, failing to score more than 9 points vs. LAC, PHX, DEN, LAL, ATL, and MEM — the team he faces tonight. The only outlier? 20 points vs. Houston — a game we were on the under, where Hield came out hot (2/2 from deep) and Curry was constantly blitzed by Rockets defenders. That won’t be the case tonight. Since Memphis adjusted their defensive schemes — switching on ball-handlers and playing drop with Edey — they’ve drastically improved their 3-point defense. They now allow just 8.7 spot up threes per game (22nd most), compared to 13.3/game (2nd most) previously under Taylor Jenkins in March. Beyond the shooting matchup, Hield’s defense remains a liability. Memphis will play fast, and constantly hunting mismatches, and Hield is a clear target. In their last meeting, Hield played just 4 minutes in the 4th, but that was with Gary Payton II out. In the most recent game vs. LAC, with Payton II back, Hield got zero 4th-quarter run. I’ve got Hield projected for 16.7 minutes, and books are hanging -180 on under 3+ 3PM. In games with Curry, Payton II, and Jimmy active where Buddy played 16-20 minutes and doesn't hit 3+ 3PM, he is averaging 4.8 PPG, failing to hit 9 points in 6 of 6 games. With Kerr staggering Curry’s minutes and keeping non-overlap low (where Hield thrives), the upside just isn’t there. #PlayerProps @everyone

IT’S 3PM SOMEWHERE….ELSE!!!

Tailing @PropBomb

6.05% ev

System free play for today!

🔑 Grizzlies ML +245 (DraftKings) 2u This value is just way too good to pass up on. My model gives this a B- grade and calculates a +187 line. 90% of the money is on GS but the big money bets are coming in on Memphis. I ride with Ja