NFL Odds: Picks, Previews for Every Week 14 Sunday Afternoon Game
Mike Carlson/Getty Images. Pictured: Tom Brady.
NFL Odds for Week 14
| Texans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -114 | 44.5 -104o / -118u | +980 |
| Cowboys Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -106 | 44.5 -104o / -118u | -1800 |
Dylan Wilkerson:The Texans have only had five quarterbacks attempt 30 or more passes against them this season. One of these instances was in a game that went to overtime against the Colts. Teams have felt no need to pass against the Texans. This isn’t all that surprising considering Houston spends most of the time trailing its opponent.
The Dallas Cowboys are huge favorites against the Texans, and if we see them take an early lead, I expect Dallas to get its run game involved. I am even entertaining the possibility that we see Rush before this game is over.
Prescott has only attempted 30 or more passes three times this season, and one of those came in an overtime thriller against the Green Bay Packers. The other 2 instances were 30 pass attempts on the dot.
Dallas can run the ball, and run the ball efficiently. I am betting on the Dallas Cowboys to get it done on the ground and to rest Prescott for the matchups ahead.
As of Saturday at 1:30 p.m. ET, PointsBet was the only sportsbook with 30.5 still on the board. Use our Action Labs Player Props tool to get the latest odds and best number.
Pick: Dak Prescott Under 30.5 Pass Attempts | Bet to 29.5
Blake Krass: I think the under is the way to go in this game. I can't trust the Browns offense until Watson gets himself up to speed so I foresee a heavy running attack to keep the ball out of Burrow's hands.
On the other side, I could see a bit of a letdown for Cincinnati after its big win. The Browns have given the Bengals problems in the Stefanski/Zac Taylor era and I think that could happen again here.
These teams are very familiar with each other and I think that always gives the defenses an advantage. Divisional totals in Week 14 and beyond within the range of 40-47 are 174-134-11 (57%) to the under. I think the trend holds up and this goes under the listed total of 47.
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The Great Foosini: If you've been reading my Jets previews this season, you'll know I like to make projections and see how similar opponents perform in various situations.
The Bills were 10.5-point favorites on the road in New York, and we actually made a play on Buffalo due to a difference in my projection vs. the market. I made the game around Bills -12, feeling the Bills would eat up Wilson.
So, we're giving Buffalo less credit now with Mike White at the helm? I do agree that there should be some narrowing of the gap, but that is quite the statement.
I personally have this spread projected at 11.2. Given the Jets' tendency to over perform due to an incredible defense and solid coaching by Robert Saleh, I'm going to lay off the side.
That said, I do believe there is value in the total.
As stated above, we have two of the top-five defenses in the league here, both of which limit explosive plays due to high-performing secondaries and defensive lines. We know Von Miller is out, but I actually think that helps the total here since it gives the Jets more time with the ball. Limiting Allen's time with the ball is the key to this under hitting.
If we look at the Bills as favorites, they've gone under when they control the ball on the ground and kill the clock. The most relevant examples are in the division, with Buffalo's outcomes against the Patriots and Jets. In order to win this game, the Bills will need to pound the ball, whether that is through Cook or Allen is up to them.
I see this playing out similarly to the Patriots game and do not expect the Jets to gain the 174 rushing yards that led them to victory. This has the makings of a 24-14 game, with three points of margin on either side
Pick: Under 43.5 |
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John LanFranca:Even the casual bettor will look at this line and be tempted to grab the full touchdown with the home dog against a divisional opponent.
As of writing this, about 60% of the tickets have been written on the home team, yet the line blew through the key number of 7. All of those factors add up to a strong lean on the under, but that lean stems from the fact the Giants offense has scored over 20 points just once all season.
When it comes to deciphering how the teams match up against one another, the Giants' defensive issues cannot be ignored. If New York puts its corners on an island against Brown and Smith, the Eagles will once again light up the scoreboard.
To make matters worse, Leonard Williams, PFF’s No. 8 interior defender, is listed as doubtful for this game. Martindale is either going to have to take his chances and be aggressive by playing man against one of the league’s premier mobile quarterbacks, or entirely change the way his defense plays.
Either way, I don’t believe the Giants have the personnel to slow down the top-ranked DVOA offense over the past six weeks, and their offense simply does not have the firepower to consistently move the football. The Eagles will buck the trends regarding their poor play on the road and win comfortably.
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Landon Silinsky: There are a lot of moving parts in this game, and it's usually tough to handicap a game when both teams are coming off blowout losses.
However, in terms of just pure strengths vs. weaknesses, Jacksonville has the biggest edge against a poor and banged-up Tennessee secondary. The Titans only being a 3.5-point favorites, despite being at home and sitting three games better in the standings, says a lot about what Jacksonville's chances are in this game.
Ultimately, I do not believe the Titans have the weaponry to score a ton of points in this spot. With so many defensive players sidelined, I could see the Jaguars getting and holding a lead here.
At full strength the Titans are the better team, but with both Burks and three important defensive players set to miss, I just don't like their chances of winning by more than a field goal. Give me the Jaguars with the points here, as this game could easily come down to a last second kick either way.
Pick: Jaguars +3.5 |
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Sam Farley: This hasn't been Dalvin Cook's best season as a Viking, but he's still putting up good numbers, he's just 73 yards from breaking the 1,000 rushing yard barrier and ranks fifth across the league in rushing yards this year.
He's -115 to find the end zone on Sunday, which looks like value given that this defense, despite improving over the past month, have still allowed 149.7 rushing yards per game, fifth most in the league, and have given up 12 rushing touchdowns to running backs, an average of one per game.
Pick: Dalvin Cook Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115) |
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Phillip Kall:A classic Ravens-Steelers match is in store. Two tough defenses and two offenses tasked with not throwing the game away. So the question is which defense will be more dominant?
The staple for the Steelers offense recently has been a balanced attack. If the balance isn’t there, they will not be able to maintain the game flow that has allowed Pickett to thrive. Against the Ravens, they will be trying to find rushing room against the third-best defense in yards per rush allowed.
We have seen this story before: When Pickett is forced to throw, the turnovers come. Now he will be facing a defense that is fourth in turnovers forced. That defense is also returning one of its best pass defenders. This seems like a recipe for disaster.
On the other side, Pittsburgh's defense does greatly outmatch the beat-up Ravens offense. We saw this matchup last week already though. When the Ravens went up against a top-three defense they simply asked Huntley to wreck the Mercedes. He did just that and made the one drive needed to win the game.
A tough low-scoring game is in store. This game should come down to which team can make the big play to swing it in their favor. We just saw Huntley make those plays for the Ravens last week, so I am going to trust him to do it once more.
Pick: Ravens +2 | Bet to +1 |
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Ricky Henne: It takes a lot for the league to flex the ratings gold that is Mahomes and the Chiefs out of primetime. The NFL clearly doesn’t see this as an even mildly competitive game, and neither do I.
Denver’s defense is a talented bunch, but it hasn’t been enough to make up for an anemic offense. The Broncos have lost games in which they held the opposition to 10, 12, 16, 17, 17 and 19 points. If they can’t muster enough offense to win games in which the defense is playing lights out, what kind of shot do they have against the Chiefs?
In the simplest of terms, the Broncos simply don’t have the horses to keep up. Kansas City scores the fifth-most points in the first half (14.3) while Denver averages the sixth-worst (8.5). If that continues and the Chiefs race out to an early lead, you may as well sit back, pop open a bag of chips and enjoy the carefree Sunday fireworks.
Kansas City averages the second-most second-half points (14.7) while Denver musters a measly 5.3, which is second worst. If Denver falls behind early, it might as well waive the white flag.
Fading the Chiefs also means you expect Denver’s top-notch pass defense to get the best of the league’s top-ranked passing attack. Do you really feel comfortable backing them instead of Mahomes? In a battle of strength vs. strength, I’m taking the otherworldly quarterback.
Pick: Chiefs -9.5 |
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I believe we may see more scoring than the market expects in this matchup. Geno Smith has been up there with the best quarterbacks this season while Sam Darnold is playing for his career.
Neither of these defenses are shutdown units and Lockett is set up to have a big day receiving. At 44.5, I believe this total is too low. I would take the over up to 46 points in what could end up being a high-scoring affair.
Pick: Over 44.5 | Bet to 46 |
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| Buccaneers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -118 | 37.5 -104o / -118u | +154 |
| 49ers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -104 | 37.5 -104o / -118u | -184 |
With the 49ers favored in this game, they’re likely to be in a positive game script for large portions of it. That will further incentivize Shanahan to be ultra conservative with his play calling, and not risk more exposure to Purdy potentially turning the ball over under the pressure of the Buccaneers blitz.
Even though Garoppolo has been a game manager at his best under Shanahan, he had shown signs of development in throwing the ball deep down the field outside the numbers this season. That was a key part of the 49ers offense that I’ve been missing in years past.
Purdy may be a good decision maker, but he doesn’t have the arm talent that even a Garoppolo has. Bucs head coach Todd Bowles knows this and should make it very difficult on him.
Short of San Francisco running all over Tampa Bay and forcing the Buccaneers to go up-tempo when trailing big, this game should be low-scoring and tight throughout. As low as the total is, I’ll still bet the under at 37.5 or better because that's a key number.
Pick: Under 37.5 (Bet Down to 37) |
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