The Philadelphia Phillies host the New York Mets on July 19, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Mets are favored by -133 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Phillies are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Mets vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Mets vs Phillies Prediction
- Mets vs Phillies Pick: Mets Moneyline (Play to -145)
My Mets vs Phillies best bet is on the New York Moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Mets vs Phillies Odds
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -151 | 9 -117o / -109u | -133 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +125 | 9 -117o / -109u | +110 |
- Mets vs Phillies moneyline: Mets -133, Phillies +110
- Mets vs Phillies over/under: 9 (-117o / -109u)
- Mets vs Phillies spread: Mets -1.5 (+125), Phillies +1.5 (-151)
Mets vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| RHP Nolan McLean (NYM) | Stat | RHP Alan Rangel (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-6 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 2.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.1 |
| 3.52/3.50 | ERA / xERA | 4.19/3.48 |
| 3.43/3.42 | FIP / xFIP | 4.39/4.28 |
| 19.2% | K-BB% | 15.3% |
| 47.8% | GB% | 35.3% |
| .272 | BABIP | .300 |
| 108 | Stuff+ | 100 |
| 96 | Location+ | 99 |
Mets vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview
The Mets will give the ball to Nolan McLean in the series finale. It's been an interesting year for McLean. In his first six outings of the year, he posted a 2.55 ERA, but a rough May lifted his ERA to 4.21. Order has been restored for McLean, who has bounced back with a 2.41 ERA and a 2.86 FIP over his last seven starts.
I think McLean has the goods to be one of the premier starters in MLB in the final 70+ games of the year. He features the ideal mix of strikeouts (10.48 K/9) and ability to generate soft contact (78th percentile average exit velocity). His deep repertoire can allow McLean to pitch for a strikeout or grounder when he needs to.
Offensively, New York has gotten on track of late, posting a 106 wRC+ since June 20th (9th). One of the Mets' key areas of strength is drawing walks, as they rank second with a 10.1% BB% in that span. Power is another area where the Mets thrive, clobbering 39 homers in their past 28 games (6th).
Juan Soto is so good that it's almost ridiculous. He owns an 183 wRC+ in his last 26 games with a 25% walk rate and five homers. The Phillies will likely pitch around him and force others to beat them. Lately, that's been working for the Mets, as five other lineup regulars have a wRC+ better than 100.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview
Philadelphia has the best top three of any rotation in the league (Sanchez, Wheeler, and Luzardo). Although the rest of the rotation has struggled, Alan Rangel has made a bid to be a permanent fixture in Philly's rotation.
Thus far, Rangel owns a 4.19 ERA with a 3.48 xERA and 4.39 FIP in five outings (19 1/3 innings). I'm not sure if I buy Rangel, though. He has a 10 K/9 so far, but his main offering is a four-seamer that averages 92.4 MPH.
Once opposing teams face Rangel more often, I don't know if he can maintain such strong strikeout numbers. He hasn't been "lucky" so far, but his 4.19 BB/9 and 1.40 HR/9 don't jump off the page.
The Phillies' offense can be terrifying. They rank 12th in MLB with a 102 wRC+ since June 20th, led by Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, each having a wRC+ above 135.
The issue comes with the rest of the lineup. Brandon Marsh turning into an All-Star has helped, but they'll need Trea Turner and Bryson Stott to hit as they have in recent times. Turner occupies too many pivotal ABs to have a 76 wRC+, and that number is up to a solid 104 in his last 23 games.
Mets vs Phillies Pick, Betting Analysis
This line is very interesting—the Mets, who are nearly 20 games under .500 as road favorites against the Phillies? It's not a trap, and I think the Mets are the proper play here. Rangel's walk issues can be problematic, and McLean is being priced like the ace that he is.
Pick: Mets Moneyline (Play to -145)
