NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr. in Nuggets vs Timberwolves (April 22)

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Nuggets vs.

Timberwolves

NBA First Basket Prop Pick: Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr.

The Denver Nuggets have a chance to close out their first round series against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Sunday night. Nikola Jokic (49% opening tip win rate) will go up against Rudy Gobert (58% win rate) for the opening tip-off.  Jokic has won all seven opening tip-offs vs Gobert over the past two seasons.

In the seven games between these teams this season, the Nuggets have scored first six times. Jokic (twice), Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray have all cashed first basket tickets in the season series.

I would look for the Nuggets to win the tip and score first in Game 4. Jokic has cashed first baskets in 24% of games started this season. So, I'll take Jokic and pair him with Porter Jr. to score first on Sunday.

The books have mispriced the Nuggets line for most of this playoff series. They continue to ignore the head-to-head tip information, which is surprisingly lopsided.

The Pick:

DraftKings Pick: Nikola Jokic +500 (Risk 0.7 Units) | Play to +350

FanDuel Pick: Michael Porter Jr. +900 (Risk 0.4 units) | Play to +700

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Nuggets vs. Timberwolves First Basket Prop Data

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